102023 Weekend update

SP500 STORMM SIGNAL: SELL from Oct 12

SP500: The STORMM SELL signal initiated on Oct 12 has reached full validation on Oct 20th. We might expect a minor relief bounce next week but would after that we would be expecting a resumption in what we believe is a “C” leg down from the August high and is detailed below. Additionally, both the Dow and Transport STORMM charts have also generated STORMM sell signals that have reached full validation this week.

The major turns in this ongoing bear market are forecasted by the STORMM signals and can be viewed in prior posts. Only the August 2022 peak was missed by a few weeks.

The next chart illustrates a potential bear market “A B C” correction that started in late Dec 2021, bottomed in Oct 2022 as an “A” wave down as five step descending triangle Then bounced in its “B” wave to August 2023 as a standard A B C three step formation. We’re now in an ongoing “C” wave that appears to be tracing out another five step descending triangle like the A wave.

The potential retracement for the C wave could be a Fib retracement of the B wave to SP4175 (38%); SP4050 (50%, or SP3926 (61%). In a more bearish retracement a full retracement would take the C wave back to the Oct 2022 low.

Weekend update 101523

SP500 STORMM SIGNAL: Buy signal from 9/28 but…..

#SP500: The STORMM buy signal from 9/28 reached full validation and is now under threat from a new STORMM SELL signal that initiated on Oct 12. We now need to watch closely to see for the direction of the major trend which could be:

1. The current sell signal reaches full validation and the SP500 returns to test both is Oct’22 upward trend line and the 200dMA
2. The current sell signal fails to reach full validation and the 9/28 continues as the major signal for the ongoing SP500 rally.

101023 Tuesday Update

SP500 STORMM SIGNAL: Buy signal from 9/28 has reached full validation

SP500: The STORMM buy signal from 9/28 has succeeded in reaching full validation and price technically bounced off the 200d moving average. In the recent retreat the SP500 price fell below the lower up trend line from last Oct’23 but recovered and is now in the process of retesting that support.

But one caution: the STORMM indicators have quickly advanced from the late September buy signal and are currently aligned for a new sell signal. We’ll have to watch closely the next few days to see if this alignment generates a new signal or moves on in support of the buy signal.

100323 Monday Update

SP500 STORMM SIGNAL: Buy signal from 9/28 pending full validation

SP500: The STORMM sell signal from 9/1 reached full validation and the SP500 has declined since that topping signal. We recently had a STORMM buy signal generated on 9/28 and we’re watching closely to see if it reaches full validation. Since its initial generation the buy signal’s strength has been wobbling and its not yet reached full validation.

We’re at a highly significant inflection point where either the SP500 finds support at a lower trend line leading back to Oct’22 – OR – it violates this trend line signaling that a major retracement of the rally from Oct’22 is underway. The rally from Oct’22, from our novice view, appears to be a three wave bear market rally that peaked in early September and had the STORMM sell signal from 9/1 indicate it’s rally is over. We’re now in a major C wave decline possibly and would anticipate both the Oct’23 trend line support to fail along with this recent STORMM buy signal. Watching closely the next few days with updates accordingly.

090623 Wednesday Update

SP500 STORMM SIGNAL: Sell Signal initiated 9/1/23 (full validation pending)

The STORMM buy signals from 3/14/23 and 4/26/23 are under threat from the formation of a new sell signal that started on 9/1/23 and is moving toward full validation. The technical formation for the SP500 appears to be an A-B-C retracement triangle and the STORMM buy signal from the end of the A wave was blocked by the negative MACD crossover. The three part B wave appears to be over and we’re now moving into the C wave of the retracement. IF the STORMM sell signal reaches full validation then this retracement would be expected to have a further decline and more complex technical structure.