072217 Weekend update

Highlight:  The STORMM indicators generate a new forecast for the SP500.

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators all went into overbought territory this week and signaled a minor decline coming to be followed by a resumption of the major trend upward.  The Pring indicator turned bullish this week and we now have all the accompanying charts in a buy status.  Expecting new ATH.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL:  The SPXL indicator is on its third buy signal and bouncing around mid-channel.

Europe: No change: The STOXX50 STORMM indicators generated a new buy signal in early July that is now supported by both the TMS and renko charts.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 7/22/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 6/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  The STORMM indicators for bond yields generated a rising yield signal in early June that was finally confirmed last week.  The rapid rise in the STORMM indicators further forecasts a minor drop to be followed by another rise in US bond yields.  All the accompanying indicators support rising yields.

The minor retracement in yields is ongoing and the supporting TMS and Renko charts are supporting this minor retracement.

TNX weekly (7/17/17) Rising yields:   A surprising turn back up in nearly all the indicators further supports the STORMM signal for rising yields

TNX monthly (6/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point yields kicked back to rising.

USD:  No change: The USD generated another in a series of failed buy signals and remains on a STORMM buy signal from May 13th.  This supported by all the accompanying indicators which is surprising given the renewed climb in US bond rates.

Oil (and commodities):No change Both generated new buy signals and have advanced while the USD has weakened.  The recent STORMM minor retreat signal appears to have finished and the major trend upward has resumed.

VIX: The Vix:SPX ratio is in untouched historical levels and showing no signs of reducing – a caution flag.   The VIX buy signal from earlier in the week failed and the Vix is returning to test its declining lower Bollinger Bands.  The VIX supporting indicators confirm a declining VIX, so no caution flags yet from the VIX for the SP500.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change This set of  indicators have picked up their decline after a late 2016 bounce and is still below its 200dMA.  The continuation of deflationary signals has not been reversed by the recent bounce in US bond yields or the USD.

071717 Monday update

Highlight: VIX generated a new buy signal on Friday 7/ 14.  We anticipate this forecasts a developing sell signal for the SP500. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 has experienced several failed sell signals since January and remains on a buy signal from the first of they year.  With the buy signal far below current levels there is room for the accompanying indicators to turn to the sell side without the current SP500 STORMM buy signal being put in jeopardy of failing.

The STORMM indicators are now in overbought territory and we’re closely watching indicator #2 to see if a significant top forms here or if we continue to another ATH.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL:  The SPXL indicators generated a third buy signal last week bouncing on the oversold level and finally showing an upward trend.

Europe: The STOXX50 STORMM indicators generated a new buy signal in early July that is now supported by both the TMS and renko charts.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 7/17/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 6/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The STORMM indicators for bond yields generated a rising yield signal in early June that was finally confirmed last week.  The rapid rise in the STORMM indicators further forecasts a minor drop to be followed by another rise in US bond yields.  All the accompanying indicators support rising yields.

The minor retracement in yields is ongoing and the supporting TMS and Renko charts are supporting this minor retracement.

TNX weekly (7/17/17) Rising yields:   A surprising turn back up in nearly all the indicators further supports the STORMM signal for rising yields

TNX monthly (6/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point yields kicked back to rising.

USD:  No change: The USD generated another in a series of failed buy signals and remains on a STORMM buy signal from May 13th.  This supported by all the accompanying indicators which is surprising given the renewed climb in US bond rates.

Oil (and commodities): Both generated new buy signals and have advanced while the USD has weakened.  The recent STORMM minor retreat signal appears to have finished and the major trend upward has resumed.

VIX: The VIX:SPX ratio just hit an ATH.  After retreating from its last sell signal in early June the VIX generated a new buy signal on Friday 7/ 14.  We anticipate this forecasts a developing sell signal for the SP500. 

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change This set of  indicators have picked up their decline after a late 2016 bounce and is still below its 200dMA.  The continuation of deflationary signals has not been reversed by the recent bounce in US bond yields or the USD.

071117 Tuesday update

Highlight: STOXX50 plus US bond yields.    The STOXX50 generated a third buy signal which is a very bullish trend signal and now the TMS charts supports this call while the Renko indicator is in oversold territory.   The US bond yields from the STORMM indicator plus weekly/monthly indicators reached an inflection point last week and kicked back to rising yields.

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 has experienced several failed sell signals since January and remains on a buy signal from the first of they year.  With the buy signal far below current levels there is room for the accompanying indicators to turn to the sell side without the current SP500 STORMM buy signal being put in jeopardy of failing.   The STORMM indicators are bouncing mid-channel with a slow deterioration as the yen continues to show weakness.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL:  The SPXL indicators generated a third buy signal last week bouncing on the oversold level and not showing a firm trend – similar to the SP500 STORMM indicators.   With the SPXL indicators in oversold territory its more probable we’ll see a pickup in the trend to higher prices.

Europe: The STOXX50 STORMM indicators failed in their last buy signal but remain on two buy signals from earlier in 2017.  The TMS and Renko charts have not yet turned to support this signal.  We suspect this divergence will resolve to the buy side soon.

The STOXX50 generated a third buy signal which is a very bullish trend signal and now the TMS plu charts support this call while the Renko indicator is in oversold territory.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 7/7/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 6/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The STORMM indicators for bond yields generated a rising yield signal in early June that was finally confirmed last week.  The rapid rise in the STORMM indicators further forecasts a minor drop to be followed by another rise in US bond yields.  All the accompanying indicators support rising yields.

TNX weekly (6/9/17) Rising yields:   A surprising turn back up in nearly all the indicators further supports the STORMM signal for rising yields

TNX monthly (6/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point yields kicked back to rising.

USD:  The USD generated another in a series of failed buy signals and remains on a STORMM buy signal from May 13th.  This supported by all the accompanying indicators which is surprising given the renewed climb in US bond rates.

Oil (and commodities): No change;  Both oil and commodities have their STORMM indicators in very oversold territory and close to generating new STORMM buy signals.

VIX: The VIX generated a buy signal at the end of June and quickly generated a sell signal within the first week of July.   The VIX now sits at mid-channel – a key inflection point for the VIX.  The TMS and Renko charts are too mixed and divergent to offer additional forecasting help.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change This set of  indicators have picked up their decline after a late 2016 bounce and is still below its 200dMA.  The continuation of deflationary signals has not been reversed by the recent bounce in US bond yields or the USD.

062417 Weekend update

Highlight: Oil and commodities signals are aligned to generate new buy signals with any decline in US bond yields and USD.   

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 has experienced several failed sell signals since January and remains on a buy signal from the first of they year.  The accompanying indicators are split with the R.Walker series, Renko, and NYMO supporting a buy signal.  With the STORMM indicators at or below midchannel we would be looking for a rally soon.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL:  The SPXL indicators generated a sell signal on 6/20 and added another 8.3% gain to the full year accumulation that now stands at 22.5%.

Europe: The STOXX50 STORMM indicators failed in their last buy signal but remain on two buy signals from earlier in 2017.  The TMS and Renko charts have not yet turned to support this signal.  We suspect this divergence will resolve to the buy side soon.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 6/24/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 6/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The STORMM indicators for bond yields generated a rising yield signal in early June but this signal is now being challenged.  Since the signal has not been convincingly confirmed or invalidated we’re not taking a position on the current signal.  Additionally, the accompanying charts remain on rising yield signals which support the latest STORMM signal but are divergent with the weekly and monthly signals.

TNX weekly (6/9/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are starting to top out and approaching a key inflection point for bonds.

TNX monthly (6/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart, these indicators are topping out and approaching a key inflection point.

USD:  The USD generated a STORMM buy signal on 6/7 and all the accompanying signals support this signal.

Oil (and commodities):   Both oil and commodities have their STORMM indicators in very oversold territory and close to generating new STORMM buy signals.  We suspect if US bond yields and USD break to declining signals then oil and commodities should generte new buy signals.

VIX: No change The VIX has retreated to its lower mid-channel after spiking through its three sell zones on the BB chart.  The TMS and Renko chart support a continued decline in the VIX as equities move higher.  The SPX:VIX ratio has reached a new peak and 20 year high at astronomical levels.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change This set of  indicators have picked up their decline after a late 2016 bounce and is still below its 200dMA.  The continuation of deflationary signals has not been reversed by the recent bounce in US bond yields or the USD.

061017 Weekend update

Highlight:  The continuation of deflationary signals has not been reversed by the recent bounce in US bond yields or the USD.  The deflationary picture will increase pressure on the FED for a June rate increase.  And if they do increase as promised their move will worsen the US deflationary picture. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 initiated another sell signal this week with all its indicators in overbought territory which immediately cancelled the signal.  The signal does forecast a minor retracement that appears to have started on Friday.  Once this retracement finishes the SP500 will move to new highs and the current STORMM signal for the SP500 is from a pair of buy signals – a strong confirmation of the uptrend.    The accompanying indicators are turning toward sell signals depending on thier daily sensitivity and so far only the NYAD is on a sell signal.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL:  This  indicator generated a buy signal on May 9th and is progressing nicely toward new highs and with a cummulative 20.7% gain YTD.

Europe: The STOXX50 STORMM indicators generated a buy signal then a minor retracement signal (similar to the SP500) that now appears to be over as the STORMM indicators generated a third buy signal this past week.  The TMS and Renko charts are just starting to support this new signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 6/9/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 6/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The STORMM indicators for bond yields generated a rising yield signal this week as the 200 dMA was tested but held.  The TMS and Renko charts support this signal so far.  We are suspect of how long this new signal for rising rates will last given the turning down of the weekly and monthly indicators.

TNX weekly (6/9/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are starting to top out and approaching a key inflection point for bonds.

TNX monthly (6/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart, these indicators are topping out and approaching a key inflection point.

On all three frames, daily, weekly, and monthly the declining yield signal for US bonds is gaining significantly and nearly confirmed by all three sets of indicators.  These set of indicators suggest the FED is done raising rates this year and that the USD on a major downward trend.  

USD:  Following the change in bond yields the USD generated a STORMM buy signal this past week that is supported by the TMS and Renko charts (also nearly supported by the Pring KST indicator).  As with bond yields this new signal is suspect given the long term trends for US bond yields.

Oil (and commodities):  As bond yields and the USD strengthen the minor retreats in oil and commodities is extending.  The STORMM indicators are now in oversold territory setting up for a new buy signal soon.

VIX: No change The VIX has retreated to its lower mid-channel after spiking through its three sell zones on the BB chart.  The TMS and Renko chart support a continued decline in the VIX as equities move higher.  The SPX:VIX ratio has reached a new peak and 20 year high at astronomical levels.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation:  This set of  indicators have picked up their decline after a late 2016 bounce and is still below its 200dMA.  The continuation of deflationary signals has not been reversed by the recent bounce in US bond yields or the USD.  The deflationary picture will increase pressure on the FED for a June rate increase.  And if they do increase as expected their move will worsen the deflationary picture.