062318 Weekend update

Highlights:  Our SPXL indicator resolves the chop for the SP500 and is on the verge of a third signal for 2018.  Details in the blog  STORMM Stockchart link

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: A STORMM sell signal has been developing but has taken longer than 5 trading days which typically indicates that it will fail to form.  So while the majority of the accompanying indicators are at the cusp of generating a sell signal we believe it more probable we’ll see a relief rally avoid cancel the developing sell signal and the STORMM buy signal from April 4 will likely survive.  The most sensitive accompanying indicator we have is the NYMO and its in oversold territory and setup for a new buy signal.  Also the SPXL indicator (see next) remains on a buy from late March and seems to be the best indicator this year to rise above the chop and signal the more profitable trades.

SPXL:  The SPXL indicator generated a buy signal in late March, then twice again in May – a strong set of three buy signals.   SPXL is again in oversold territory that will likely generate a fourth buy signal in the last week of June.

Europe:  The STOXX50 generated a STORMM buy signal on June 19th that is so far not supported by the TMS or Renko charts so caution until they catch up and confirm.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 6/23/18): Buy All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500 but the recent price retreat is turning this set of indicators downward slowly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 5/18): Buy:  The monthly indicators are split with two on a sell signal and two remaining on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The STORMM indicators have maintained their rising rate signal from early April which is the fourth in a series of rising rate signals.   The challenge of this latest signal form the yield drop on May 29th did not materialize and rates again are resuming their major trend upward.  The weekly and monthly indicators all maintain their rising rate signals – a very entrenched trend.

TNX weekly (6/9/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend resumes.

TNX monthly (5/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend resumes.

USD:  The USD follows the major trend on US bond yields upward and continues to generate overbought STORMM signals of minor pullbacks in the rising major trend.

Oil (and commodities):  Both graphs generated a new STORMM buy signal on June 19th and we’ll see if it can survive in the face of the major trend upward of US bond yields and the USD>

VIX:  The Bollinger Bands and VIX price are mid-channel not signaling any new direction for equities which further supports that we anticipate the developing sell signal for the SP500 will not reach full validation.

Pring business cycle: No change:  The bond component of the three Pring business cycle indicators has been bouncing around its 250dMA but is more convincingly in a negative alignment.  With stocks and commodities in a positive relationship it appears we’re now in stage 4 of the Pring business cycle which is a latter stage status for the market (6 cycles total).  The next cycle would see a decline initiate for equities due to some degree of economic contraction.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change The developing inflation trend is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 4 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields

 

 

 

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060918 Weekend update

Highlights: Vix is setting up for a new buy signal as the SP500 is setting up to initiate a new sell signal – caution ahead. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The STORMM sell signal failed when the SP500 crossed SP2740 and we’re back to the April 4 buy signal with all the accompanying indicators on a buy signal from early May.  Currently the STORMM indicators and the NYMO are in overbought territory suggesting a retracement is on the horizon possibly similar to the pullback in the second half of May.

Technically the price action the last few days found support at the down line for the contracting triangle formation from Jan2018.   Also a contracting triangle formation since early May appears to have failed to resolve to the downside but we’ll be watching this closely in the next few days.

SPXL:  The SPXL indicator generated a buy signal in early May and in late May a second buy signal was generated.

Europe: No change:  The STOXX50 developed a second buy signal that reached validation from March 26th and is holding despite the sharp drop of the last few days.  However, the TMS and Renko charts are clearly on a sell signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 6/9/18): Buy All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500 but the recent price retreat is turning this set of indicators downward slowly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 5/18): Buy:  The monthly indicators are split with two on a sell signal and two remaining on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The STORMM indicators have maintained their rising rate signal from early April but the recent alignment of the indicators forecasts another minor decline to be followed by a renewed rise in rates as the major trend resumes.  For the accompanying indicators only the TMS is signaling a rise in rates.

TNX weekly (6/9/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend resumes.

TNX monthly (5/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend resumes.

USD: No change: The USD STORMM indicators are on a buy signal and in overbought territory indicating a minor pull back to be followed by a renewed major trend rally.

Oil (and commodities):  Oil attempted to generate a STORMM buy signal but was blocked by a negative MACD cross.  However, we’re still on a buy signal from mid February.

For commodities as a whole we don’t see the MACD block and have a STORMM buy signal from June 6th.

VIX:  The Bollinger Bands are tightening with the VIX in the low range, close to crossing the lower band. This is setting up to support a new buy signal as the SP500 is setting up to initiate a new sell signal – caution ahead.

Pring business cycle: No change:  The bond component of the three Pring business cycle indicators has been bouncing around its 250dMA but is more convincingly in a negative alignment.  With stocks and commodities in a positive relationship it appears we’re now in stage 4 of the Pring business cycle which is a latter stage status for the market (6 cycles total).  The next cycle would see a decline initiate for equities due to some degree of economic contraction.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change The developing inflation trend is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 4 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields

 

 

 

052918 Tuesday update

Highlights:   US bond signals have shifted and along with our SP500 indicators signal further equity weakness ahead.  Detail in the blog. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The STORMM sell signal holds on and has avoided being invalidated by the recent rally.  The accompanying indicators are starting to roll over and join the NYMO for a new sell signal and in support of the ongoing STORMM sell signal.  The STORMM indicators and the NYMO are reaching oversold levels that could begin to setup a new buy signal – we’ll see.

Technically in the chart below we can see the down sloping line of the 2018 bearish triangle is being tested and so far support is holding.  We’re now at critical level and if it fails (and the STORMM sell signal it will) we’ll then expect a test of the support zone around SP2550.

SPXL:  The SPXL indicator generated a buy signal that continues despite today’s drop and this indicator is reaching oversold territory in a potential setup for a second buy signal.

Europe:  The STOXX50 developed a second buy signal that reached validation from March 26th and is holding despite the sharp drop of the last few days.  However, the TMS and Renko charts are clearly on a sell signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 5/25/18): Buy All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500 but the recent price retreat is turning this set of indicators downward slowly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 4/18): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal but this past weeks price retreat is turning this set of indicators downward slowly.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The STORMM indicators are now in very overbought territory for bond yields signaling a minor bounce up to then be followed by renewed decline.  This move would invalidate the April 2018 fourth rising yield signal and also align with the current TMS and Renko declining yield signals.

TNX weekly (5/25/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend resumes.

TNX monthly (4/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend resumes.

USD: No change: The USD STORMM indicators are on a buy signal and in overbought territory indicating a minor pull back to be followed by a renewed major trend rally.

Oil (and commodities):  The recent move in the STORMM indicators was not a clean sell signal for we’re not yet annotating the charts all calling for a new sell signal or an invalidation move of the last buy signal.

VIX:  Vix buy signal from May 14th has gone through all three sell signals on the BB chart wit both the TMS and Renko chart support further climbs in the VIX.

Pring business cycle: No change:  The bond component of the three Pring business cycle indicators has been bouncing around its 250dMA but is more convincingly in a negative alignment.  With stocks and commodities in a positive relationship it appears we’re now in stage 4 of the Pring business cycle which is a latter stage status for the market (6 cycles total).  The next cycle would see a decline initiate for equities due to some degree of economic contraction.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change The developing inflation trend is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 4 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields

 

 

 

051218 Weekend update

Highlights:   Our indicators suggest triangle test will be successful and the SP500 will then reestablish its bullish trend to all time highs. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The STORMM sell signal is on the cusp of failing if the SP500 crosses above 2801.  All the accompanying indicators are now on a buy signal from this past week’s rally and given the alignment of the current STORMM indicators we anticipate a minor pull back to be followed by a rally to all time highs.  The NYMO indicator supports this current near term forecast.  Technically it appears the SP500 has broken out of its declining 2018 triangle to the up side and a retest of the down sloping upper trend line will be next.  Our indicators (STORMM and NYMO) suggest the test will be successful and the SP500 will then reestablish its bullish trend to all time highs.   How this will occur in the fast of rising US bond rates (and the USD) is the only set of factors that is hard to reconcile.

SPXL:  The SPXL indicator generated a buy signal that continues as a the new trend.

Europe: No change:  The STOXX50 developed a second buy signal that reached validation from March 26th with the Renko and TMS charts supporting.  However, like the US equity picture a STORMM sell signal is developing.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 5/12/18): Buy All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500 but the recent price retreat is turning this set of indicators downward slowly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 4/18): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal but this past weeks price retreat is turning this set of indicators downward slowly.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  The ten-year bond yield has now a very unusual fourth rising yield STORMM signal that is supported by all the accompanying indicators.   Additionally the STORMM indicators are now all in overbought territory signaling that a minor retracement in bond yields will be followed by a rise to new highs in yields.

TNX weekly (5/12/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend resumes.

TNX monthly (4/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend resumes.

USD: No change: The USD STORMM indicators are on a buy signal and in overbought territory indicating a minor pull back to be followed by a renewed major trend rally.

Oil (and commodities):No change:  The recent decline in commodities from the strengthening bond yields and USD appears to have ended and a very unusual fourth STORMM buy signal was generated Feb 12th for oil (not commodities in general).

VIX:  Both VIX buy signals have failed as the VIX continued to decline along with its Bollinger Bands in this past week.  While the BB width is narrowing the downward slop and declining VIX price supports a declining volatility picture that supports a renewed rally in equities.

Pring business cycle: No change:  The bond component of the three Pring business cycle indicators has been bouncing around its 250dMA but is more convincingly in a negative alignment.  With stocks and commodities in a positive relationship it appears we’re now in stage 4 of the Pring business cycle which is a latter stage status for the market (6 cycles total).  The next cycle would see a decline initiate for equities due to some degree of economic contraction.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change The developing inflation trend is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 4 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields

 

 

 

050518 Weekend update

Highlights:  Very unusual second buy signal on the VIX BB chart. Caution flag for equities.  USD indicators signal near term weakness then renewed rally.

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The STORMM indicators reached a validated sell signal and we now have 5 of 6 supporting indicators on a sell signal as well.  However, some are turning in a buy direction and the most sensitive indicator (NYAD) has already generated a buy signal.  The NYAD is more predicative of the short term rallys and drops of this larger consolidation in 2018.  SP500 price will have to bounce to over SP2700 to threaten the current STORMM and we view the most likely price activity is a small rally followed by another decline to test the SP2550 support zone.

SPXL:  The SPXL has generated a sell on Friday that will be validated on Monday is the trend continues.

Europe: No change:  The STOXX50 developed a second buy signal that reached validation from March 26th with the Renko and TMS charts supporting.  However, like the US equity picture a STORMM sell signal is developing.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 4/28/18): Buy All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500 but the recent price retreat is turning this set of indicators downward slowly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 3/18): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal but this past weeks price retreat is turning this set of indicators downward slowly.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  The ten-year bond yield has now a very unusual fourth rising yield STORMM signal that is supported by all the accompanying indicators.   Additionally the STORMM indicators are now all in overbought territory signaling that a minor retracement in bond yields will be followed by a rise to new highs in yields.

TNX weekly (4/28/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend resumes.

TNX monthly (3/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend resumes.

USD: The USD STORMM indicators are on a buy signal and in overbought territory indicating a minor pull back to be followed by a renewed major trend rally.

Oil (and commodities):No change:  The recent decline in commodities from the strengthening bond yields and USD appears to have ended and a very unusual fourth STORMM buy signal was generated Feb 12th for oil (not commodities in general).

VIX:  The VIX generated a new buy signal two weeks ago but has failed to spike through its overhead BB sell zones.  Again on Friday the VIX generated another buy signal which is very unusual.  With tight BB there a high degree of caution on equities.

Pring business cycle: No change:  The bond component of the three Pring business cycle indicators has been bouncing around its 250dMA but is more convincingly in a negative alignment.  With stocks and commodities in a positive relationship it appears we’re now in stage 4 of the Pring business cycle which is a latter stage status for the market (6 cycles total).  The next cycle would see a decline initiate for equities due to some degree of economic contraction.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change The developing inflation trend is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 4 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields