021919 Weekend update

Highlights:  STORMM indicators setup for new signal.  An important inflection point approaching for US equities.   Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The four STORMM indicators are overbought and aligned for a signal in the next few days.  We have two choices:  A new sell signal that could mark the end of the rally since December or two, a continuation of the December rally that takes to overbought STORMM indicators into a signal that forecasts further highs ahead.  A key inflection point approaching.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 2/9/19): 2 Sell: 1 Buy:  A split decision on the weekly charts and indicators as the December rally extends.  The pending STORMM signal will likely impact this divergence.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/19): Sell:  All three monthly SP500 charts are on a sell signal.

VIX: The VIX cross of it’s lower Bollinger Band is complete which generates a new buy signal that is a negative near-term for the SP500.    Additionally, its BB width is tightening which adds to the significance (validity) of this new signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change: The STORMM indicators have quickly moved to overbought levels for the 10 yr bond yield and have generated a new declining yield signal.  We now have the TMS and Renko indicators supporting a declining yield STORMM signal with the Pring KST indicator trending to confirm.

TNX weekly (2/9/19) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues but is weakening rapidly.

TNX monthly (1/19) Declining yields:  The monthly yield chart has turned ahead of the weekly and confirmed the STORMM declining yield signal.

USD:  A the start of February the USD STORMM and accompanying indicators all aligned for a buy signal which puts the USD divergent to the US bond yield trends.  Possibly a signal responding to a growing sense of market fear globally?

Oil (and commodities): No change: Oil and commodities are on a buy signal and the recent overbought alignment of these indicators has signal a minor decline which has completed and a continued major rally which is on-going.

Pring business cycle: Advisor Perspectives The Pring business cycle graphs have bonds moving above its 250dMA while equities and commodities are below. We’re not fully convinced the positive bond graph will hold and the latest STORMM signal for resu

mption of rising rates supports this view.  Therefore we’re assuming we’re in a stage 5 to stage 6 transition in the Pring business cycles.   Stage five advises to reduce stock holdings while stage six advises to reduce inflation hedges (raise cash).

Pring deflation: inflation:  This indicator is just starting to turn toward inflation as the USD is cracking after its significant spike.

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020919 Weekend update

Highlights:  Vix generates a new buy signal = negative for equities.  Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The four STORMM indicators are overbought and aligned for a new sell signal but again as in January indicator #1 is extremely over bought and signals a minor pullback to be followed by a move to recent or greater highs.   The accompanying indicators are all in overbought territory as well.

 

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 2/9/19): 2 Sell: 1 Buy: The three weekly charts are starting to recover from the December selloff but so far only one has turned to a bullish signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/19): Sell:  All three monthly SP500 charts are on a sell signal.

VIX: The VIX cross of it’s lower Bollinger Band is complete which generates a new buy signal that is a negative near-term for the SP500.    Additionally, its BB width is tightening which adds to the significance (validity) of this new signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change: The STORMM indicators have quickly moved to overbought levels for the 10 yr bond yield and have generated a new declining yield signal.  We now have the TMS and Renko indicators supporting a declining yield STORMM signal with the Pring KST indicator trending to confirm.

TNX weekly (2/9/19) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues but is weakening rapidly.

TNX monthly (1/19) Declining yields:  The monthly yield chart has turned ahead of the weekly and confirmed the STORMM declining yield signal.

USD:  Similar to the rapid switch in bond yields from rising to declining, the USD has gone from a STORMM buy to sell signal.  Similar to the 10yr yield indicators, two of the three have confirmed a sell signal for the USD.

The USD is very close to invalidating its last STORMM sell signal.  Given that US bond yields continue to decline this strength in the USD is signaling global move to safety which is a negative for equities and commodities.

Oil (and commodities): No change: Oil and commodities are on a buy signal and the recent overbought alignment of these indicators has signal a minor decline which has completed and a continued major rally which is on-going.

Pring business cycle: Advisor Perspectives The Pring business cycle graphs have bonds moving above its 250dMA while equities and commodities are below. We’re not fully convinced the positive bond graph will hold and the latest STORMM signal for resumption of rising rates supports this view.  Therefore we’re assuming we’re in a stage 5 to stage 6 transition in the Pring business cycles.   Stage five advises to reduce stock holdings while stage six advises to reduce inflation hedges (raise cash).

Pring deflation: inflation:  This indicator is just starting to turn toward inflation as the USD is cracking after its significant spike.

 

 

020719 Wednesday updte

Highlights: Major or minor pullback in the SP500?  Our indicators repeat their mid-January forecast.  Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The four STORMM indicators are overbought and aligned for a new sell signal but again as in January indicator #1 is extremely over bought and signals a minor pullback to be followed by a move to recent or greater highs. 

 

 

 

020219 Weekend update

Highlights: Our VIX and STORMM indicators are aligned to generate new SP500 sell signals – caution flag for equities.   Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The four STORMM indicators are overbought and  now aligned to generate a new sell signal on any decline.  Only a very strong continuation of the recent rally will alter this alignment.  An additional caution flag comes from the VIX which just crossed its lower Bollinger Band line and is setting up for its own sell signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 2/1/19): 2 Sell: 1 Buy: The three weekly charts are starting to recover from the December selloff but so far only one has turned to a bullish signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/19): Sell:  All three monthly SP500 charts are on a sell signal.

VIX: The VIX has crossed it lower Bollinger Band which sets it up for a new buy signal (sell equities) – a cautionary red flag for equities.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:   The STORMM indicators have quickly moved to overbought levels for the 10 yr bond yield and have generated a new declining yield signal.  We now have the TMS and Renko indicators supporting a declining yield STORMM signal with the Pring KST indicator trending to confirm.

TNX weekly (2/2/19) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues but is weakening rapidly.

TNX monthly (1/19) Declining yields:  The monthly yield chart has turned ahead of the weekly and confirmed the STORMM declining yield signal.

USD:  Similar to the rapid switch in bond yields from rising to declining, the USD has gone from a STORMM buy to sell signal.  Similar to the 10yr yield indicators, two of the three have confirmed a sell signal for the USD>

Oil (and commodities): Oil and commodities are on a buy signal and the recent overbought alignment of these indicators has signal a minor decline which has completed and a continued major rally which is on-going.

Pring business cycle: Advisor Perspectives The Pring business cycle graphs have bonds moving above its 250dMA while equities and commodities are below. We’re not fully convinced the positive bond graph will hold and the latest STORMM signal for resumption of rising rates supports this view.  Therefore we’re assuming we’re in a stage 5 to stage 6 transition in the Pring business cycles.   Stage five advises to reduce stock holdings while stage six advises to reduce inflation hedges (raise cash).

Pring deflation: inflation:  This indicator is just starting to turn toward inflation as the USD is cracking after its significant spike.

 

 

012619 Weekend update

Highlights: Key test this week for the SP500 as US 10yr bond yields and USD quickly reverse signals.  Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators have reset to mid-channel levels and are again rising toward overbought levels.  Additionally, the declining top technical line plus the Fib retracement window spans SP2625-2700 has the recent price action in the middle of this range.  This coming week is a significant test of this range with the STORMM indicators moving toward a new signal (likely a sell).   We’ll be watching closely for determination of the key current question for the SP500 –  rally in a bear market vs a new bull rally.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 1/26/19): Sell:  All three of the weekly SP500 chart have indicators have declined to a sell signal which increases the negative (bear) picture for the equity market.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 12/18): Sell:  All three monthly SP500 charts are on a sell signal.

VIX: No change: The VIX is rapidly approaching its lower Bollinger Bands and has declined off its mid-channel holding pattern after its December spikes.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:   The STORMM indicators have quickly moved to overbought levels for the 10 yr bond yield and have generated a new declining yield signal.  The accompanying indicators are trending toward supporting this new signal but not yet fully in agreement.  Key week for bond yields as the FOMC statement is made public.  With the weekly and monthly yield charts on the cusp of new signals for the direction of bond yields – this week will be important as we approach the end of month.

TNX weekly (1/26/19) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues but is weakening rapidly.

TNX monthly (12/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend continues but is weakening rapidly.

USD:  Similar to the rapid switch in bond yields from rising to declining, the USD has gone from a STORMM buy to sell signal.  The accompanying indicators are trending toward this new signal but do not yet in full support.

Oil (and commodities): Having completed the extreme oversold forecast from the STORMM indicators with a decline to new lows we now have a new buy signal from oil and commodities.  This rally will likely reach its limit soon as bonds yields and USD rally.

Pring business cycle: Advisor Perspectives The Pring business cycle graphs have bonds moving above its 250dMA while equities and commodities are below. We’re not fully convinced the positive bond graph will hold and the latest STORMM signal for resumption of rising rates supports this view.  Therefore we’re assuming we’re in a stage 5 to stage 6 transition in the Pring business cycles.   Stage five advises to reduce stock holdings while stage six advises to reduce inflation hedges (raise cash).

Pring deflation: inflation:  This indicator is just starting to turn toward inflation as the USD is cracking after its significant spike.