052117 Weekend update

Highlight:   Signals for declines in USD, and bond yields reached full validation while the SP500 signal moves toward full validation.  The USD and bond yield signals bring relief to gold, oil, and deflation in general if they continue near-term.     

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 initiated another sell signal last week that continues to move toward full validation.  The recent bounce could be a renewed rally or just a B wave bounce which will likely resolve in the coming week.  All the accompanying indicators have moved to sell signals.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: No change:This indicator climbed 5.7% then generated a sell signal this past week.  For 2017, the overall gain is 14.34% while only being invested 30% of the time.   We’re now in cash awaiting the next buy signal.

Europe: The STOXX50 STORMM indicators generated a buy signal that will now experience a minor retracement before climbing to new highs.   The TMS and Renko indicators support the current pull- back.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 5/21/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 5/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  Bond yields on the STORMM indicator chart have reached a fully validated declining yield signal that is now supported by almost all the accompanying indicators.  The STORMM indicators are now in the overbought zone and aligning for a new rising yield signal – an important inflection point this coming week and more importantly of how the FED will adjust rates in June.

TNX weekly (5/21/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are starting to top out and approaching a key inflection point for bonds.

TNX monthly (5/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart, these indicators are topping out and approaching a key inflection point.

USD:  The STORMM indicators have generated a new sell signal for the USD that has reached full validation and is supported by all the accompanying indicators.   The three Pring KST indicators are now all supporting a sell signal for the USD.  This new trend for the USD could support rising commodities and relieve the overall US deflationary trend.

Oil (and commodities): No change:  As bond yields and the USD retreat, gold, oil, and commodities have all generated new STORMM buy signals.   This signal is supported in the near term but is in a longer term picture of a growing deflationary trend (see below).

VIX:  The VIX has retreated to its lower mid-channel after spiking through its three sell zones on the BB chart.  The TMS and Renko chart still support a rising VIX which puts a caution on equities rising near term. 

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change;  This set of  indicators have picked up their decline after a late 2016 bounce and is still below its 200dMA.   This movement may be arrested if the declining TNX and USD moves continue.  Overall, this puts pressure on the FED for June rate hike.

042917 Weekend update

Highlight:  As bond yields and the USD retreat, gold, oil, and commodities have all generated new STORMM buy signals.

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 initiated a sell signal this week with many of the more responsive indicators starting to turn down as well.  We’re watching this closely to see if the STORMM signal reaches validation or if resolves as a minor retreat in an ongoing upward trend.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: This indicator climbed 5.7% then generated a sell signal this past week.  For 2017, the overall gain is 14.59%.  We’re now in cash awaiting the next buy signal.

Europe: The STOXX50 STORMM indicators generated a buy signal this past week that is now supported by the TMS or Renko charts.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 4/29/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 4/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  Bond yields on the STORMM indicator chart generated a rising yield signal last week that is now supported by the TMS and Renko charts while the Pring indicator is crossing.

TNX weekly (4/29/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are starting to top out and approaching a key inflection point for bonds.

TNX monthly (4/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart, these indicators are topping out and approaching a key inflection point.

USD:  As bond roll over in either a minor or major move – the USD is testing its 200dMA and in the process threntening to invalidate its last three buy signals.  A key inflection point coming this week for bonds and the USD.

Oil (and commodities):  As bond yields and the USD retreat, gold, oil, and commodities have all generated new STORMM buy signals.  Our comment from last week appears to be progressing:

4/22: ”  So overall the picture appears to suggest near term spike in the USD/US bond yields due to geopolitical/financial stress that will resolve to major trends back down for both with oil/commodities resuming their climb into the summer. “

VIX:  The VIX has retreated from mid-channel, partial bear market for equities to a full retreat to the lower BB area. The TMS and Renko charts support this retreat.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation:No change:  This indicator is now crossing by multiple measures into a deflationary trend due to the rising US bond yield and USD movement.    This growing trend will put pressure on the FED to continue its rate increases beyond the all anticipated March rise.

042217 Weekend update

Highlight:  Overall the picture appears to suggest near term spike in the USD/US bond yields due to geopolitical/financial stress that will resolve to their major trends back down for both with oil/commodities resuming their climb into the summer. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:No change:  The SP500 recent buy signals for the STORMM indicators and the Renko plus NYAD buy indicators all failed this week as the SP500 continued to retreat.  However for the STORMM indicators we still have two buy signals and they are approaching oversold territory.  The accompanying indicators are all divergent and this status could be mainted down SP2200.  But we don’t anticipate a retreat this large and are looking for support at the FIB 61.8% support zone around SP2280-2300.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: This indicator after a -1.7% retreat has generated a second buy signal at almost the identical price level as the first.

Europe: The STOXX50 STORMM indicators generated a buy signal this past week that is not yet supported by the TMS or Renko charts.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 4/22/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 3/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  Bond yields on the STORMM indicator chart generated another rising yield signal that is not yet supported by the accompanying charts.  This signal is suspect but we are going into a volatile week for bonds with the US debt ceiling approaching.  If appears the underlying trend for bonds is turning to declining yields  (see weekly / monthly charts below) but some short term pops are possible.

TNX weekly (4/1/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are starting to top out and approaching a key inflection point for bonds.

TNX monthly (3/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart, these indicators are topping out and approaching a key inflection point.

USD:  A very rare fourth STORMM buy signal for the USD developed this week and is supported by the near term rising in US bond yields that is developing.  A bad development for inflation and commodities

Oil (and commodities):  From oversold STORMM indicator levels oil/ commodities have quickly move to overbought levels and are now retreating.  However, the STORMM indicators at oversold suggested a minor retreat then followed by new highs.

So overall the picture appears to suggest near term spike in the USD/US bond yields due to geopolitical/financial stress that will resolve to major trends back down for both with oil/commodities resuming their climb into the summer. 

VIX: No change: The VIX has spiked through all three sell signals again and is likely nearing a top predicting a bottom is approaching for equities.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation:No change:  This indicator is now crossing by multiple measures into a deflationary trend due to the rising US bond yield and USD movement.    This growing trend will put pressure on the FED to continue its rate increases beyond the all anticipated March rise.

041517 Weekend update

Highlight:  US bond yields have resolved last week at their daily inflection point to the downside. Weekly and monthly bond indicators are following this trend.  We suspect the declining bond yield status will eventually weaken the USD and lead to a renewed climb in oil and commodities.   

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:No change:  The SP500 recent buy signals for the STORMM indicators and the Renko plus NYAD buy indicators all failed this week as the SP500 continued to retreat.  However for the STORMM indicators we still have two buy signals and they are approaching oversold territory.  The accompanying indicators are all divergent and this status could be mainted down SP2200.  But we don’t anticipate a retreat this large and are looking for support at the FIB 61.8% support zone around SP2280-2300.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: This indicator is now 1.7% in the red.  As you can see from the chart there are three stop loss zones at -3, -4, and -8%.  We see as probable the -3 and possible -4% stops will be activated but unlikley for the -8% stop.

Europe: The STOXX50 continued to retreat and this is supported by both the Renko and TMS charts.  The STORMM signal from April 1 for a sell signal did not reach full validation and we’re in the same situation for the EU equities as the SP500 with the accompanying indicators signaling a decline while the STORMM indicators do not.   In this situation its most probable the retreat will be shallow and go as far as the FIB retracement zones from the STORMM buy signal – for the STOXX50 the max is around 3210.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 4/15/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 3/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The inflection point this past week we mentioned was coming for US 10yr yields has evolved into a dramatic reversal.   On the STORMM chart both the Dec’16 and Mar’17 rising yield signals have failed as rates strongly retreated this past week.  And similar to equities we anticipate this will be a shallow retractment back to FIB zone from the Aug ’16 rising rate STORMM signal around the 200dMA at TNX20.  A close eye should be kept on the weekly and monthly indicators which are advancing a rollover to lower yields.  Clearly the bond market is challenging the FED for more rate increases this year.

TNX weekly (4/1/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are starting to top out and approaching a key inflection point for bonds.

TNX monthly (3/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart, these indicators are topping out and approaching a key inflection point.

USD:  With the Pring indicator generating a buy signal we now have the USD STORMM signals fully supported by the accompanying indicators for a buy.  How long this climb in the USD can continue in the face of declining bond yields is probably more related to rising geopolitical tensions.

Oil (and commodities):  Both oil and commodities have reached overbought STORMM levels that signal a minor retracement to be followed by climbs to new highs.  We suspect the declining bond yield status will weaken the USD and lead to a renewed climb in oil and commodities.

VIX:  The VIX has spiked through all three sell signals again and is likely nearing a top predicting a bottom is approaching for equities.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation:No change:  This indicator is now crossing by multiple measures into a deflationary trend due to the rising US bond yield and USD movement.    This growing trend will put pressure on the FED to continue its rate increases beyond the all anticipated March rise.

040817 Weekend update

Highlight:  US bond yields approaching a key inflection point with the monthly and weekly indicators starting to peak and roll over while the daily STORMM indicator is divergent with its accompanying indicators.  A potential weakening picture for continued rise in rates this year.  

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:No change:  The SP500 has generated a STORMM buy signal- the third in a row which is a very strong continuing rally setup.  We now have all the accompanying indicators turning toward buy signals with the NYAD and Renko charts already confirming the third STORMM SP500 buy signal.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL:No change The current SPXL signal is on a buy from the 27th and is in alignment with the STORMM indicator for the SP500.

Europe:No change: The STOXX50 has a STORMM buy signal that is supported by the accompanying indicators.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 4/1/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 3/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  similar to equities US bonds have generated a third rising yield STORMM signal today – a significant renewed rise in rates.  However the accompanying indicators are divergent to the STORMM signal.

TNX weekly (4/1/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are starting to top out and approaching a key inflection point for bonds.

TNX monthly (3/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart, these indicators are topping out and approaching a key inflection point.

USD:No change:  The USD is mirroring the US equity and US bond s by generating a STORMM buy signal which was the  third in a row and a strong renewed rally setup.  The TMS and Renko charts support this new call.

Oil (and commodities): No change: The recent decline was excessive and took the STORMM indicators to levels that signaled a minor bounce to be followed by a renewed decline to equivalent or lower lows for both oil and commodities.   We are now seeing the minor bounce in oil and commodities that should complete soon.

VIX:  The VIX has spiked through all three sell signals and returned to a neutral mid-channel position.  An equity rally should push the VIX back to its lower BB zone.   The TMS and Renko charts are divergent on the current VIX status.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation:No change:  This indicator is now crossing by multiple measures into a deflationary trend due to the rising US bond yield and USD movement.    This growing trend will put pressure on the FED to continue its rate increases beyond the all anticipated March rise.