011417 Weekend update

Highlight:   Introducing a new set of technical indicators for the SPXL a 3x of the #SP500 index

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts  daily.  The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  A very quite week that continued with a STORMM buy signal for the SP500 we now have the accompanying charts except the TMS and Pring indicators are confirming this new signal.  Earlier in the week a developing STORMM sell signal was of concern but failed yesterday to reach full validation.  With little change in the SP500 we’re turning to a new set of indicators for short term tracking of the 3x SP500 – SPXL:

SP500 Stratasearch:  We’re introducing a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch.  The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets.  The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%,  Ave Trade: 11.79%,  Ave Win%: 47.74%,  Ave Loss%:8.19, PctProfitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%.  Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly  performance.  Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns.  We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics.   Results will be presented in the future.  As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: current signal is on a buy with a 4 and 8% stop.  The current SPXL signal aligned with the STORMM buy signal.

Europe: No change The STOXX50 has a buy signal from Nov 8th with the TMS and Renko charts supporting this call. Similar to the SP500, the STORMM indicators forecast a minor retracement in the major trend upward and we expect this move in the coming week.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 1/14/16): Buy  All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 12/16): Buy   All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The dual STORMM rising yields signals from late July and September have forecast the amazing spike in yields that we continue to watch.   Recently from overbought level for the STORMM indicators yields have again completed a minor trend decline.  This week the STORMM indicators generated a third rising yield signal which is very unusual.  However the TMS, Renko, and Pring accompanying indicators do not yet support this signal.  Resolution of this divergence (likely to rising yields given the weekly and monthly major trends upward) should occur soon.

Long term bond yields: We have two charts for the US ten-year bond yield to compliment the SP500 weekly / monthly charts using the same set of indicators for both time frames.

TNX weekly (1/14/17) Rising yields:  The amazing climb in US bond yields has finally turned the weekly chart to a confirmation of climbing yields – clearly a major turn in bond yields is now occurring.

TNX monthly (12/16) Rising yields:  The monthly US bond yield indicators has joined the weekly and confirmed rising yields from all.

USD: No change: All the charts for the USD are developing sell signals but are far from convincing or validated signals.  Therefore we’re sticking with the confirmed buy signals from the fall of 2016 until the picture is resolved – likely as the bond yield major trend upward reasserts itself in the next 1-2 weeks.

Oil (and commodities): No change: The recent drop in oil prices completed a minor bounce as the indicators forecast and has resumed its major trend downward.  The price action has invalidated the mid-Sept STORMM buy signal and returned us to a STORMM sell signal from Jun 9th.

VIX: No change The VIX generated two sell signal last week as equities weakened.  The VIX is now declining with the TMS and Renko charts starting to turn.  Mid channel support for the VIX did not develop and the VIX is now moving to oversold levels.

Pring business cycle:N o change:  Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA.  Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle.   Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where stengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change:  The Pring inflation deflation indicator has a negative KST and the CRB index  has crossed to the negative its 200dMA.  However the CRB and GTX indexes are slowing rising above their moving average lines suggesting inflation is strengthening but needs further progression to confirm the rising trend.

010717 Weekend update:

Highlight:   New signal for 10yr US bond yield and the Pring busines cycle. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and during the week we update our stockcharts  daily.  The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  With a new STORMM buy signal for the SP500 we now have the accompanying charts except the TMS and Pring indicators are confirming this new signal.

Europe: No change The STOXX50 has a buy signal from Nov 8th with the TMS and Renko charts supporting this call. Similar to the SP500, the STORMM indicators forecast a minor retracement in the major trend upward and we expect this move in the coming week.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 1/7/16): Buy  All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 12/16): Buy   All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The dual STORMM rising yields signals from late July and September have forecast the amazing spike in yields that we continue to watch.   Recently from overbought level for the STORMM indicators yields have again completed a minor trend decline.  This week the STORMM indicators generated a third rising yield signal which is very unusual.  However the TMS, Renko, and Pring accompanying indicators do not yet support this signal.  Resolution of this divergence (likely to rising yields given the weekly and monthly major trends upward) should occur soon.

Long term bond yields: We’ve added two new charts for the US ten-year bond yield to compliment the SP500 weekly / monthly charts using the same set of indicators for both time frames.

TNX weekly (1/7/17) Rising yields:  The amazing climb in US bond yields has finally turned the weekly chart to a confirmation of climbing yields – clearly a major turn in bond yields is now occurring.

TNX monthly (12/16) Rising yields:  The monthly US bond yield indicators has joined the weekly and confirmed rising yields from all.

USD:  All the charts for the USD are developing sell signals but are far from convincing or validated signals.  Therefore we’re sticking with the confirmed buy signals from the fall of 2016 until the picture is resolved – likely as the bond yield major trend upward reasserts itself in the next 1-2 weeks.

Oil (and commodities): No change: The recent drop in oil prices completed a minor bounce as the indicators forecast and has resumed its major trend downward.  The price action has invalidated the mid-Sept STORMM buy signal and returned us to a STORMM sell signal from Jun 9th.

VIX:  The VIX generated two sell signal last week as equities weakened.  The VIX is now declining with the TMS and Renko charts starting to turn.  Mid channel support for the VIX did not develop and the VIX is now moving to oversold levels.

Pring business cycle:  Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA.  Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle.   Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where stengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change:  The Pring inflation deflation indicator has a negative KST and the CRB index  has crossed to the negative its 200dMA.  However the CRB and GTX indexes are slowing rising above their moving average lines suggesting inflation is strengthening but needs further progression to confirm the rising trend.

010317 Monday update:

Highlights:   New SP500 STORMM buy signal with the monthly SP500 and 10 year US bond signals joining the weekly signals forecasting rising trends for both.

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and during the week we update our stockcharts  daily.  The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The minor retreat we were expecting in the prior weekend update has ended today with a new STORMM buy signal for the SP500.    The accompanying charts except the TMS indicator are confirming this new signal and we expect the TMS to follow suite in the next few days.   This new signal resolves the neutral STORMM signal status from around the US election.

Europe: No change The STOXX50 has a buy signal from Nov 8th with the TMS and Renko charts supporting this call. Similar to the SP500, the STORMM indicators forecast a minor retracement in the major trend upward and we expect this move in the coming week.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 12/31/16): Buy  All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 12/16): Buy   All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The dual STORMM rising yields signals from late July and September have forecast the amazing spike in yields that we continue to watch.   The dual signals have the TMS, and Renko indicators supporting rising yields while the Pring KST indicator has turned to point to declining yields.   The current alignment of the STORMM indicators again in December as we saw in October and November are in extreme overbought levels forecasting a minor drop (or sidewards action) to then a return to climbing yields.

Long term bond yields: We’ve added two new charts for the US ten-year bond yield to compliment the SP500 weekly / monthly charts using the same set of indicators for both time frames.

TNX weekly (12/17/16) Rising yields:  The amazing climb in US bond yields has finally turned the weekly chart to a confirmation of climbing yields – clearly a major turn in bond yields is now occurring.

TNX monthly (11/16) Rising yields:  The monthly US bond yield indicators has joined the weekly and confirmed rising yields from all.

USD: No change: The USD generated a second STORMM buy signal and the TMS plus Renko charts have confirmed.  A double STORMM buy signal forecast a strong move for the USD which is not surprise given the same forecast is occurring for US bond yields.  This is currently a negative for commodities and at some point will be a negative for equities.   Off the second STORMM buy signal the USD has STORMM indicators similar to bond yields and equites in extremely overbought levels signalling a minor retracement to be followed a resumption of the major trend.

Oil (and commodities): No change: The recent drop in oil prices completed a minor bounce as the indicators forecast and has resumed its major trend downward.  The price action has invalidated the mid-Sept STORMM buy signal and returned us to a STORMM sell signal from Jun 9th.

VIX:  The VIX generated two sell signal last week as equities weakened.  The VIX is now declining with the TMS and Renko charts starting to turn.  Mid channel support for the VIX is key in determining near term trends.

Pring business cycle: No change:  Bonds and commodities broke below their 250dMA while stocks remain above.  This supports an out of cycle (#8) business cycle call which highlights the abnormal circumstances the economy has moved into after a such a long period of abnormally low rates and a large overhand of debt.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change:  The Pring inflation deflation indicator has a negative KST and the CRB index  has crossed to the negative its 200dMA.  However the CRB and GTX indexes are slowing rising above their moving average lines suggesting inflation is strengthening but needs further progression to confirm the rising trend.

122416 Weekend update – Happy Holidays

Highlights:  The VIX generated a buy signal this past week with narrow Bollinger Bands – a negative for equities.    While the TMS and Renko charts don’t yet support a spike in the VIX the  SPX:VIX ratio is at an exceptionally high level challenging the 20 year peak trend line.   

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and during the week we update our stockcharts  daily.  The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  A minor retracement or pause (sidewards) move has been forecasted from mid December and is currently evolving for the SP500.  Some weakness is showing up in the accompanying indicators but the weekly and monthly indicators below point toward an on-going major trend upward.

Europe: No change The STOXX50 has a buy signal from Nov 8th with the TMS and Renko charts supporting this call. Similar to the SP500, the STORMM indicators forecast a minor retracement in the major trend upward and we expect this move in the coming week.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 12/24/16): Buy  The recent equity rally has restored a convincing buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 11/16): Buy  The recent equity rally has also strengthened the monthly SP500 indicators but we’ll need to wait to the end of November for an update – current reading is firmly on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change The dual STORMM rising yields signals from late July and September have forecast the amazing spike in yields that we’re now witnessing.  The dual signals have the TMS, Renko, and Pring indicators in support of rising yields.  The current alignment of the STORMM indicators again in November as we saw in October are in extreme overbought levels forecasting a minor drop (or sidewards action) to then a return to climbing yields.

Long term bond yields: We’ve added two new charts for the US ten-year bond yield to compliment the SP500 weekly / monthly charts using the same set of indicators for both time frames.

TNX weekly (12/17/16) Rising yields:  The amazing climb in US bond yields has finally turned the weekly chart to a confirmation of climbing yields – clearly a major turn in bond yields is now occurring.

TNX monthly (11/16) yields declining :..but very close to a new signal.  On the monthly chart all but the cross of the EMA (6,10) with the 20dMA remains to confirm a major trend change for yields on the 10 yr US bond.

USD: No change: The USD generated a second STORMM buy signal and the TMS plus Renko charts have confirmed.  A double STORMM buy signal forecast a strong move for the USD which is not surprise given the same forecast is occurring for US bond yields.  This is currently a negative for commodities and at some point will be a negative for equities.   Off the second STORMM buy signal the USD has STORMM indicators similar to bond yields and equites in extremely overbought levels signalling a minor retracement to be followed a resumption of the major trend.

Oil (and commodities): No change: The recent drop in oil prices completed a minor bounce as the indicators forecast and has resumed its major trend downward.  The price action has invalidated the mid-Sept STORMM buy signal and returned us to a STORMM sell signal from Jun 9th.

VIX: The VIX generated a buy signal this past week with narrow Bollinger Bands – a negative for equities.    While the TMS and Renko charts don’t yet support a spike in the VIX the  SPX:VIX ratio is at an exceptionally high level challenging the 20 year peak trend line.

Pring business cycle: No change:  Bonds and commodities broke below their 250dMA while stocks remain above.  This supports an out of cycle (#8) business cycle call which highlights the abnormal circumstances the economy has moved into after a such a long period of abnormally low rates and a large overhand of debt.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change:  The Pring inflation deflation indicator has a negative KST and the CRB index  has crossed to the negative its 200dMA.  However the CRB and GTX indexes are slowing rising above their moving average lines suggesting inflation is strengthening but needs further progression to confirm the rising trend.

121716 Weekend Update

Highlights:  CRB and GTX indexes are slowing rising above their moving average.   Inflation is strengthening but needs further progression to confirm the rising trend.  

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and during the week we update our stockcharts  daily.  The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  A minor retracement or pause (sidewards) move has been forecasted from last weekend and is currently evolving for the SP500.  Some weakness is showing up in the accompanying indicators but the weekly and monthly indicators below point toward an on-going major trend upward.

Europe: The STOXX50 has a buy signal from Nov 8th with the TMS and Renko charts supporting this call. Similar to the SP500, the STORMM indicators forecast a minor retracement in the major trend upward and we expect this move in the coming week.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 12/17/16): Buy  The recent equity rally has restored a convincing buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 11/16): Buy  The recent equity rally has also strengthened the monthly SP500 indicators but we’ll need to wait to the end of November for an update – current reading is firmly on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change The dual STORMM rising yields signals from late July and September have forecast the amazing spike in yields that we’re now witnessing.  The dual signals have the TMS, Renko, and Pring indicators in support of rising yields.  The current alignment of the STORMM indicators again in November as we saw in October are in extreme overbought levels forecasting a minor drop (or sidewards action) to then a return to climbing yields.

Long term bond yields: We’ve added two new charts for the US ten-year bond yield to compliment the SP500 weekly / monthly charts using the same set of indicators for both time frames.

TNX weekly (12/17/16) Rising yields:  The amazing climb in US bond yields has finally turned the weekly chart to a confirmation of climbing yields – clearly a major turn in bond yields is now occurring.

TNX monthly (11/16) yields declining :..but very close to a new signal.  On the monthly chart all but the cross of the EMA (6,10) with the 20dMA remains to confirm a major trend change for yields on the 10 yr US bond.

USD: No change: The USD generated a second STORMM buy signal and the TMS plus Renko charts have confirmed.  A double STORMM buy signal forecast a strong move for the USD which is not surprise given the same forecast is occurring for US bond yields.  This is currently a negative for commodities and at some point will be a negative for equities.   Off the second STORMM buy signal the USD has STORMM indicators similar to bond yields and equites in extremely overbought levels signalling a minor retracement to be followed a resumption of the major trend.

Oil (and commodities): No change: The recent drop in oil prices completed a minor bounce as the indicators forecast and has resumed its major trend downward.  The price action has invalidated the mid-Sept STORMM buy signal and returned us to a STORMM sell signal from Jun 9th.

VIX: No change:   The VIX has failed on its last technical formation (bullish triangle) to have a substantial bounce.  The TMS and Renko charts continue to forecast a declining VIX.  However the Bollinger bands are tightening quickly which is forecasting a near term spike for the VIX which aligns with the minor retracement forecast from the last STORMM SP500 signal (likely around the coming FED decision).

Pring business cycle:  Bonds and commodities broke below their 250dMA while stocks remain above.  This supports an out of cycle (#8) business cycle call which highlights the abnormal circumstances the economy has moved into after a such a long period of abnormally low rates and a large overhand of debt.

Pring deflation: inflation:  The Pring inflation deflation indicator has a negative KST and the CRB index  has crossed to the negative its 200dMA.  However the CRB and GTX indexes are slowing rising above their moving average lines suggesting inflation is strengthening but needs further progression to confirm the rising trend.