120818 Weekend update

Highlights:  New signals for several markets.  Equities, TNX yields, USD on declines while gold, oil, commodities rising.  Business cycle and inflation indicators turning.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators have reach full validation of their developing sell signal and the more sensitive accompanying indicators have also turned to new sell signals.  The full series can be viewed at our Stockcharts public list.

SP500 Stratasearch: As a supplement to the STORMM signals we introduced a chart and technical indicator set for SPXL selected and optimized using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets STORMM Stockchart link.  The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007:

  • APR: 52.17%,
  • Ave Trade: 11.79%,
  • Ave Win%: 47.74%,
  • Ave Loss%:8.19,
  • Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%,
  • Num trades:42,
  • wins:15 loss 27.
  • Stops (GTC)3,4%

Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns.  This indicator is employed as a buy or long signal only and a sell signal goes to cash.  We’ve recently added the MFI(23) signal as and additional signal that when aligned with the CCI sell signal becomes a short signal.  This is a much more rare alignment and only occurred in late January during the last 12 months (only twice in the last 4 years). As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

The SPXL; No signal  We’re currently backtesting an alternative version of this indicator to increase its sensitivity.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 12/7/18): Sell: Two of our three weekly SP500 chart have indicators have declined to a sell signal with the third deteriorating quickly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 11/18): Sell:  Two of our three monthly SP500 charts are on a sell signal.  During November the #1 monthly chart recovered to a buy signal.

VIX: No change:   The Bollinger Band VIX chart generated a buy signal on 11/7 that never reached any sell signal but declined to again generate another almost equivalent buy signal on 12/1.  This buy signal quickly spicked through all three of the charts sell signals which would normally indicate any decline in equities is over.  However the spike in the VIX has not peaked and we could likely see a further decline in equities.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  The STORMM indicators for US bond yields generated a sell signal on Nov 8th and all the accompanying indicators support this call.   A MACD negative cross over signal was generated this past week and now blocks any rising yield signals near term.

The STORMM indicators have extended into oversold levels that predict a minor bounce to be followed by another major trend down to equivalent or lower lows in US Bond rates.  This forecast projects an increase of inverted yields with the 10yr rates further declining as short term rates rise.   The weekly and monthly rates indicators are rapidly changing from their strong rising yield alignment to a declining yield signal – this appears to be a major trend change for long term bonds. 

TNX weekly (12/7/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues but is weakening rapidly.

TNX monthly (11/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend continues

USD:  We missed a validated STORMM sell signal on 11/14 which is supported now by all four of its accompanying charts.  In response to declining bond yields the USD is following in its retreat.  So far this has been a weak retreat in the USD but we suspect it could accelerate as equities and bonds yields continue to fall.

Oil (and commodities):  With the USD on a valid sell signal gold, oil ,and commodities in general have generated STORMM buy signals.

Pring business cycle: No change: Advisor Perspectives  In October all three of Pring business cycle indicators turned negative (below their 250dMA).  Only the commodity indicator is slightly below the line and could reverse near term to change the current stage.  With all three in a negative alignment we have move from stage 4 to stage five or possibly the early part of stage six.  Stage five advises to reduce stock holdings while stage six advises to reduce inflation hedges (raise cash).

If the decline in bond yields rallys the 10yr Bond price we’ll soon see the bond indicator of this series turn positive over its 250dMA producing a new Pring business cycle.

Pring deflation: inflation:  This indicator appears to be turning most likely in response to declining bond yields and USD.

 

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120518 Wednesday update

Highlights: Our indicators have produced a new US 10 yr rate signal that is a red flag for equities.  #TNX

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators quickly bounced to overbought and have initiated a sell signal that we’re watching closely to see if it reaches full validation.  Several of the more sensitive accompanying indictors are also close to sell signals.  It is possible the B wave bounce is over and caution is needed at this point in the on-going decline especially with the weekly and monthly indicators on sell signals.  The significant development tonight comes from US bond rates which is a negative for equities (see below).

SP500 Stratasearch: As a supplement to the STORMM signals we introduced a chart and technical indicator set for SPXL selected and optimized using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets STORMM Stockchart link.  The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007:

  • APR: 52.17%,
  • Ave Trade: 11.79%,
  • Ave Win%: 47.74%,
  • Ave Loss%:8.19,
  • Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%,
  • Num trades:42,
  • wins:15 loss 27.
  • Stops (GTC)3,4%

Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns.  This indicator is employed as a buy or long signal only and a sell signal goes to cash.  We’ve recently added the MFI(23) signal as and additional signal that when aligned with the CCI sell signal becomes a short signal.  This is a much more rare alignment and only occurred in late January during the last 12 months (only twice in the last 4 years). As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

The SPXL;  We’re currently backtesting an alternative version of this indicator to increase its sensitivity.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 12/1/18): Sell: Two of our three weekly SP500 chart have indicators have declined to a sell signal with the third deteriorating quickly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 11/18): Sell:  Two of our three monthly SP500 charts are on a sell signal.  During November the #1 monthly chart recovered to a buy signal.

VIX: No change:   The Bollinger Band VIX chart generated a buy signal on 11/7 which is a red flag for the SP500 but has not yet spiked through any sell signals.  The recent VIX action has resolved at neutral or mid-channel which leans toward unresolved weakness for the SP500 near term.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  The STORMM indicators for US bond yields generated a sell signal on Nov 8th and all the accompanying indicators support this call.   A MACD negative cross over signal was generated this past week and now blocks any rising yield signals near term.

The STORMM indicators have extended into oversold levels that predict a minor bounce to be followed by another major trend down to equivalent or lower lows in US Bond rates.  This forecast projects an increase of inverted yields with the 10yr rates further declining as short term rates rise.   The weekly and monthly rates indicators are rapidly changing from their strong rising yield alignment to a declining yield signal – this appears to be a major trend change for long term bonds. 

TNX weekly (12/1/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues.

TNX monthly (11/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend continues

USD: No change: The USD resumes its climb with a new STORMM buy signal on Sept 24th and all the accompanying indicators support this signal.

Oil (and commodities): No change From a valid sell signal on Oct14th the associated STROMM indicators have moved to extremely oversold levels signaling that a minor bounce near term to be followed by a move to lower lows for oil and commodities.

Commodities have resumed their declines as forecast by the Oct 14th signal.

Pring business cycle: No change: Advisor Perspectives  In October all three of Pring business cycle indicators turned negative (below their 250dMA).  Only the commodity indicator is slightly below the line and could reverse near term to change the current stage.  With all three in a negative alignment we have move from stage 4 to stage five or possibly the early part of stage six.  Stage five advises to reduce stock holdings while stage six advises to reduce inflation hedges (raise cash).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change: The developing DEFLATION trend for this indicator is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 5/6 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields plus support for cash, utilities, REITS, and staples.

 

12/1/18 Weekend update

Highlights:  New signal for the SP500 continues but is in overbought territory.  Charts at: STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: No change:  The STORMM indicators and all its accompanying charts have quickly moved to a validated buy signal in what is likely a B wave rally.  While the monthly indicators continue to erode it appears we’re into an oversold B wave bounce.

SP500 Stratasearch: As a supplement to the STORMM signals we introduced a chart and technical indicator set for SPXL selected and optimized using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets STORMM Stockchart link.  The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007:

  • APR: 52.17%,
  • Ave Trade: 11.79%,
  • Ave Win%: 47.74%,
  • Ave Loss%:8.19,
  • Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%,
  • Num trades:42,
  • wins:15 loss 27.
  • Stops (GTC)3,4%

Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns.  This indicator is employed as a buy or long signal only and a sell signal goes to cash.  We’ve recently added the MFI(23) signal as and additional signal that when aligned with the CCI sell signal becomes a short signal.  This is a much more rare alignment and only occurred in late January during the last 12 months (only twice in the last 4 years). As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

The SPXL;  No change: A new buy signal was generated on Nov 27th and aligns nicely with the STORMM buy signal plus all of its accompanying charts.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 12/1/18): Sell: Two of our three weekly SP500 chart have indicators have declined to a sell signal with the third deteriorating quickly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 11/18): Sell:  Two of our three monthly SP500 charts are on a sell signal.  During November the #1 monthly chart recovered to a buy signal.

VIX: No change:   The Bollinger Band VIX chart generated a buy signal on 11/7 which is a red flag for the SP500 but has not yet spiked through any sell signals.  The recent VIX action has resolved at neutral or mid-channel which leans toward unresolved weakness for the SP500 near term.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  The STORMM indicators for US bond yields generated a sell signal on Nov 8th and all the accompanying indicators support this call.   A MACD negative cross over signal was generated this past week and now blocks any rising yield signals near term.

TNX weekly (12/1/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues.

TNX monthly (11/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend continues

USD: No change: The USD resumes its climb with a new STORMM buy signal on Sept 24th and all the accompanying indicators support this signal.

Oil (and commodities): No change From a valid sell signal on Oct14th the associated STROMM indicators have moved to extremely oversold levels signaling that a minor bounce near term to be followed by a move to lower lows for oil and commodities.

Commodities have resumed their declines as forecast by the Oct 14th signal.

Pring business cycle: No change: Advisor Perspectives  In October all three of Pring business cycle indicators turned negative (below their 250dMA).  Only the commodity indicator is slightly below the line and could reverse near term to change the current stage.  With all three in a negative alignment we have move from stage 4 to stage five or possibly the early part of stage six.  Stage five advises to reduce stock holdings while stage six advises to reduce inflation hedges (raise cash).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change: The developing DEFLATION trend for this indicator is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 5/6 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields plus support for cash, utilities, REITS, and staples.

 

112918 Thursday update

Highlights:  SP500 generates new signal across all our daily indicators at STORMM Stockchart link.    Charts at STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list 

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators and all its accompanying charts have quickly moved to a validated buy signal in what is likely a B wave rally.  While the monthly indicators continue to erode it appears we’re into an oversold B wave bounce.

SP500 Stratasearch: As a supplement to the STORMM signals we introduced a chart and technical indicator set for SPXL selected and optimized using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets STORMM Stockchart link.  The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007:

  • APR: 52.17%,
  • Ave Trade: 11.79%,
  • Ave Win%: 47.74%,
  • Ave Loss%:8.19,
  • Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%,
  • Num trades:42,
  • wins:15 loss 27.
  • Stops (GTC)3,4%

Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns.  This indicator is employed as a buy or long signal only and a sell signal goes to cash.  We’ve recently added the MFI(23) signal as and additional signal that when aligned with the CCI sell signal becomes a short signal.  This is a much more rare alignment and only occurred in late January during the last 12 months (only twice in the last 4 years). As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

The SPXL;  A new buy signal was generated on Nov 27th and aligns nicely with the STORMM buy signal plus all of its accompanying charts.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 11/25/18): Sell: Two of our three weekly SP500 chart have indicators have declined to a sell signal with the third deteriorating quickly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 10/18): Sell:  All three of the monthly SP500 charts and indicators have moved to a sell signal with the October decline.

VIX: No change:   The Bollinger Band VIX chart generated a buy signal on 11/7 which is a red flag for the SP500 but has not yet spiked through any sell signals.  The recent VIX action has resolved at neutral or mid-channel which leans toward unresolved weakness for the SP500 near term.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  The STORMM indicators for US bond yields generated a sell signal on Nov 8th and all the accompanying indicators support this call.   A MACD negative cross over signal was generated this past week and now blocks any rising yield signals near term.

TNX weekly (11/25/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues.

TNX monthly (10/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend continues

USD: No change: The USD resumes its climb with a new STORMM buy signal on Sept 24th and all the accompanying indicators support this signal.

Oil (and commodities): From a valid sell signal on Oct14th the associated STROMM indicators have moved to extremely oversold levels signaling that a minor bounce near term to be followed by a move to lower lows for oil and commodities.

Commodities have resumed their declines as forecast by the Oct 14th signal.

Pring business cycle: No change: Advisor Perspectives  In October all three of Pring business cycle indicators turned negative (below their 250dMA).  Only the commodity indicator is slightly below the line and could reverse near term to change the current stage.  With all three in a negative alignment we have move from stage 4 to stage five or possibly the early part of stage six.  Stage five advises to reduce stock holdings while stage six advises to reduce inflation hedges (raise cash).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change: The developing DEFLATION trend for this indicator is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 5/6 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields plus support for cash, utilities, REITS, and staples.

 

11/25/18 Weekend update

Highlights:  SP500 sell signals increase on all time frames while our indicators for bond yields and commodities forecast their continued decline.  Vix and USD rally.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  A STORMM sell signal has reached full validation off the last rally to SP2815.  The STORMM indicators reached a valid sell signal on 11/15 and by 11/23 all the accompanying indicators have confirmed with their own sell signals.  A full set of sell signals from our SP500 series is notable but the weekly and monthly indictors are continuing to deteriorate which begins to suggest the early stages of bear market so extreme caution at this point in the SP500 equity market.

SP500 Stratasearch: As a supplement to the STORMM signals we introduced a chart and technical indicator set for SPXL selected and optimized using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets STORMM Stockchart link.  The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007:

  • APR: 52.17%,
  • Ave Trade: 11.79%,
  • Ave Win%: 47.74%,
  • Ave Loss%:8.19,
  • Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%,
  • Num trades:42,
  • wins:15 loss 27.
  • Stops (GTC)3,4%

Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns.  This indicator is employed as a buy or long signal only and a sell signal goes to cash.  We’ve recently added the MFI(23) signal as and additional signal that when aligned with the CCI sell signal becomes a short signal.  This is a much more rare alignment and only occurred in late January during the last 12 months (only twice in the last 4 years). As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

The SPXL;  Buy signals from Oct 15 and 29 have both been invalidated by this week’s decline.  Stop loss limits at 6% have exited us from SPXL with a now neutral position on the SPXL ETF and with the sell signal from 6/29 as the last valid signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 11/25/18): Sell: Two of our three weekly SP500 chart have indicators have declined to a sell signal with the third deteriorating quickly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 10/18): Sell:  All three of the monthly SP500 charts and indicators have moved to a sell signal with the October decline.

VIX: No change:   The Bollinger Band VIX chart generated a buy signal on 11/7 which is a red flag for the SP500 but has not yet spiked through any sell signals.  The recent VIX action has resolved at neutral or mid-channel which leans toward unresolved weakness for the SP500 near term.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The STORMM indicators for US bond yields generated a sell signal on Nov 8th and all the accompanying indicators support this call.   A MACD negative cross over signal was generated this past week and now blocks any rising yield signals near term.

TNX weekly (11/25/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues.

TNX monthly (10/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend continues

USD: No change: The USD resumes its climb with a new STORMM buy signal on Sept 24th and all the accompanying indicators support this signal.

Oil (and commodities): From a valid sell signal on Oct14th the associated STROMM indicators have moved to extremely oversold levels signaling that a minor bounce near term to be followed by a move to lower lows for oil and commodities.

Commodities have resumed their declines as forecast by the Oct 14th signal.

Pring business cycle: No change: Advisor Perspectives  In October all three of Pring business cycle indicators turned negative (below their 250dMA).  Only the commodity indicator is slightly below the line and could reverse near term to change the current stage.  With all three in a negative alignment we have move from stage 4 to stage five or possibly the early part of stage six.  Stage five advises to reduce stock holdings while stage six advises to reduce inflation hedges (raise cash).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change: The developing DEFLATION trend for this indicator is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 5/6 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields plus support for cash, utilities, REITS, and staples.