091617 Weekend update

Highlight:  Resolution to US bond yields, USD, and the Pring business cycles.  With a trend change developing for inflation. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:No change:   The STORMM indicators predicted a minor retreat and then a move to new highs.  This forecast has come through and we’re now climbing to new highs.  The accompanying indicators that had turned bearish and now in a buy signal mode except for the Pring indicator series which is close to confirming the rally.  The STORMM buy signal on 8.22 has remain valid and is now the third STORMM buy signal this year.   The STORMM indicators have quickly moved to overbought territory and indicator #2 is signaling another minor retreat before moves to new highs.

Trend continues with STORMM indicatros in overbought territory setting up for next signal.  Pring indicator turns bullish while STORMM indicators signal advancing to ATH. 

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL:No update The SPXL indicator caught the current rally on 8.14 and again on 8.22 and its metrics have quickly moved to overbought territory and signaled a sell sign at the close on Friday.  This is supporting the current STORMM indicator which is moving to a minor retreat in an on-going rally signal.

The last sell signal for SPXL failed and we’re back to the last (8.21) rally or buy signals.

Europe: No update  The STOXX50 STORMM indicators that generated a buy signal from early July have failed but we still have the buy signal from April 20th still valid.  We expect soon more range bound bouncing before the rally resumes.  The Renko chart is supporting a renewed rally while the TMS chart is still on  sell.  The divergence is supporting some continuation of the range bound STOXX50.

The STORMM buy signal continues and both the TMS and Renko charts support this call.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW9/16/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 8/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

Several of our long- term charts are signaling an approaching bottom.  On page two of our STOCKCHARTS listings you’ll find the BINYBT breath chart and the bottom finder chart are reaching into extremely oversold conditions.  

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The US bond yield has finally resolved and we now have the STORMM declining yield signal from May.   The accompanying indicators have all switched to rising yields.  We’ll see how this divergence is resolved this week.

TNX weekly (9/16/17) Rising yields:   A weakening trend with some of the indicators crossing into declining yield territory

TNX monthly (8/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point with a partial set of indicators signalling declining yields

USD: No change: Following the trend change on all time frames for US bond yields the USD is also reverting back to a STORMM sell signal from  May 13 with all the accompanying indicator supporting this call.

Oil (and commodities):No change: Both oil and commodities generated new buy signals this week creating two back to back buy signals which is a strong indicator of trend.  This trend is now counter the developing rising USD and US bond yields signals.  A divergence we anticipate resolving soon as we approach the US debt ceiling deadline.

VIX: No change: The VIX completed its double top with two sell signals in early August.  The Vix paused a mid-channel and is now retreating to its lower Bband as the equity rally continues.  Both the TMS and Renko charts support this move. 

Pring business cycle: No change: As we’ve seen several times since 2009 the FED’s economic management has perturbed a normal business cycle progression and with both bonds and stocks above their 250dMA we’re reversing back to Pring business cycle 2 from cycle stage 4.  So we’ll be watching bond yields closely going forward for both economic expansion vs recession as well as USD/commodities moves.

Given the recent dual hurricanes is a growing possibility that US GDP will decline and maybe go negative in the next two quarters and the Pring business cycle could backup up to stage 1 which is a late recession alignment where only US bonds are above their 250dMA. 

Pring deflation: inflation: No change:  This indicator is testing a bottom and challenging its 250dMA.  We suspect it will hold the rally as bond yields and the USD decline.

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091217 Tuesday update

Highlight:  Resolution to US bond yields, USD, and the Pring business cycles.  With a trend change developing for inflation. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators predicted a minor retreat and then a move to new highs.  This forecast has come through and we’re now climbing to new highs.  The accompanying indicators that had turned bearish and now in a buy signal mode except for the Pring indicator series which is close to confirming the rally.  The STORMM buy signal on 8.22 has remain valid and is now the third STORMM buy signal this year.   The STORMM indicators have quickly moved to overbought territory and indicator #2 is signaling another minor retreat before moves to new highs.

Trend continues and Pring indicator turns bullish while STORMM indicators signal advancing to ATH. 

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: The SPXL indicator caught the current rally on 8.14 and again on 8.22 and its metrics have quickly moved to overbought territory and signaled a sell sign at the close on Friday.  This is supporting the current STORMM indicator which is moving to a minor retreat in an on-going rally signal.

The last sell signal for SPXL failed and we’re back to the last (8.21) rally or buy signals.

Europe:  The STOXX50 STORMM indicators that generated a buy signal from early July have failed but we still have the buy signal from April 20th still valid.  We expect soon more range bound bouncing before the rally resumes.  The Renko chart is supporting a renewed rally while the TMS chart is still on  sell.  The divergence is supporting some continuation of the range bound STOXX50.

The STORMM buy signal continues and both the TMS and Renko charts support this call.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW9/10/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 8/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

Several of our long- term charts are signaling an approaching bottom.  On page two of our STOCKCHARTS listings you’ll find the BINYBT breath chart and the bottom finder chart are reaching into extremely oversold conditions.  

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The US bond yield has finally resolved and we now have the STORMM declining yield signal from May supported by all the accompanying indicators.   We’ll see if this hold into Q4’17.

TNX weekly (9/2/17) Rising yields:   A weakening trend with some of the indicators crossing into declining yield territory

TNX monthly (8/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point with a partial set of indicators signalling declining yields

USD:  Following the trend change on all time frames for US bond yields the USD is also reverting back to a STORMM sell signal from  May 13 with all the accompanying indicator supporting this call.

Oil (and commodities):No change: Both oil and commodities generated new buy signals this week creating two back to back buy signals which is a strong indicator of trend.  This trend is now counter the developing rising USD and US bond yields signals.  A divergence we anticipate resolving soon as we approach the US debt ceiling deadline.

VIX: No change: The VIX completed its double top with two sell signals in early August.  The Vix paused a mid-channel and is now retreating to its lower Bband as the equity rally continues.  Both the TMS and Renko charts support this move. 

Pring business cycle:  As we’ve seen several times since 2009 the FED’s economic management has perturbed a normal business cycle progression and with both bonds and stocks above their 250dMA we’re reversing back to Pring business cycle 2 from cycle stage 4.  So we’ll be watching bond yields closely going forward for both economic expansion vs recession as well as USD/commodities moves.

Pring deflation: inflation: This indicator is testing a bottom and challenging its 250dMA.  We suspect it will hold the rally as bond yields and the USD decline.

090217 Weekend update

Highlight:  Equities generate a strong set of rally signals but a minor retracement is developing.  A divergent set of USD and US bond signals on all time frames could be showing a trend change to declining yields?

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators predicted a minor retreat and then a move to new highs.  This forecast has come through and we’re now climbing to new highs.  The accompanying indicators that had turned bearish and now in a buy signal mode except for the Pring indicator series which is close to confirming the rally.  The STORMM buy signal on 8.22 has remain valid and is now the third STORMM buy signal this year.   The STORMM indicators have quickly moved to overbought territory and indicator #2 is signaling another minor retreat before moves to new highs.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: The SPXL indicator caught the current rally on 8.14 and again on 8.22 and its metrics have quickly moved to overbought territory and signaled a sell sign at the close on Friday.  This is supporting the current STORMM indicator which is moving to a minor retreat in an on-going rally signal.

Europe:  The STOXX50 STORMM indicators that generated a buy signal from early July have failed but we still have the buy signal from April 20th still valid.  We expect soon more range bound bouncing before the rally resumes.  The Renko chart is supporting a renewed rally while the TMS chart is still on  sell.  The divergence is supporting some continuation of the range bound STOXX50.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW9/2/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 8/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

Several of our long- term charts are signaling an approaching bottom.  On page two of our STOCKCHARTS listings you’ll find the BINYBT breath chart and the bottom finder chart are reaching into extremely oversold conditions.  

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:No change The US bond yield signals remain on a rising yield signal from the early Jun STORMM signal however the July 22 signal failed this week.  Also the accompanying charts remain divergent. 

A divergent  set of  bond  and usd signals on all time frames – unusual……could be a major trend change to declining yields?

TNX weekly (9/2/17) Rising yields:   A surprising turn back up in nearly all the indicators further supports the STORMM signal for rising yields

TNX monthly (8/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point yields kicked back to rising.

USD:No change:   The USD remains on a buy signal from the STORMM indicators and now has support of nearly all the accompanying charts except the Renko indicator.  We’re watching this trend closely given the US bond yield which we anticipate will align with a strengthening dollar and rise.

Oil (and commodities):Both oil and commodities generated new buy signals this week creating two back to back buy signals which is a strong indicator of trend.  This trend is now counter the developing rising USD and US bond yields signals.  A divergence we anticipate resolving soon as we approach the US debt ceiling deadline.

VIX: The VIX completed its double top with two sell signals in early August.  The Vix paused a mid-channel and is now retreating to its lower Bband as the equity rally continues.  Both the TMS and Renko charts support this move. 

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Bonds are continuing to rally and if this persists will change the business cycle – stay tuned.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change This set of  indicators have picked up their decline after a late 2016 bounce and is still below its 200dMA.

Weekend update 081917

Highlight:T he current VIX spike through the upper Bollinger Bands doesn’t appear to be complete which suggests further equity weakness near term.       

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators are in mid-channel with the last signal indicating a minor retreat to be followed by a renewed climb to ATHs.  However, this signal is  divergent with the accompanying indicators that are all now on sell signals – except for the NYMO which tends to be the most foward looking of the series.  We anticipate this divergence to resolve in the coming week with a renewed climb to ATHs.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: The SPXL indicator buy signal from mid August has failed but we still have a triple sereis of buy signals from late June/early July that remain valid as long as  the zone around 33.50 holds on the SPXL chart.  The SPXL indicator is in oversold territory so any rally will generate a new buy signal.

Europe:  The STOXX50 STORMM indicators generated a new buy signal in early July and is bouncing around mid-channel for the STORMM indicators waiting for the major trend upward to pick up again.  The Renko chart is now signaling a renewed rally while the TMS chart remains on a sell signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 8/19/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 7/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

Several of our long- term charts are signaling an approaching bottom.  On page two of our STOCKCHARTS listings you’ll find the BINYBT breath chart and the bottom finder chart are reaching into extremely oversold conditions.  

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The US bond yield signals remain on a rising yield signal from the early Jun STORMM signal however the July 22 signal failed this week.  Additionaly the accompanying charts remain divergent.  A similar setup to equities that we anticipate resolving this week.

TNX weekly (8/11/17) Rising yields:   A surprising turn back up in nearly all the indicators further supports the STORMM signal for rising yields

TNX monthly (7/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point yields kicked back to rising.

USD:  The USD remains on a buy signal from the STORMM indicators and now has support of nearly all the accomanying charts except the Renko indicator.  We’re watching this trend closely given the US bond yield which we anticipate will align with a strengthening dollar and rise.

Oil (and commodities):Both oil and commodities generated new buy signals this week creating two back to back buy signals which is a strong indicator of trend.  This trend is now counter the developing rising USD and US bond yields signals.  A divergence we anticipate resolving soon as we approach the US debt ceiling deadline.

VIX: The VIX generated a buy signal near the end of July and as the Bollinger Bands contracted spiked from mid-channel to overbought levels.  The VIX has now created a double top and sell signal which is very unusual.  The current spike through the upper Bollinger Bands doesn’t appear to be complete which suggest further equity weakness near term. 

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change This set of  indicators have picked up their decline after a late 2016 bounce and is still below its 200dMA.  The continuation of deflationary signals has not been reversed by the recent bounce in US bond yields or the USD.

081217 Weekend update- VIX updated

Highlight:  Our VIX chart appears to be calling a near term bottom in equities is approaching.   

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators are in oversold territory and with a pending signal.  We anticipate a buy signal with any upward move on Monday but we’ll have to wait and see what develops.  The current STORMM signal remains a buy but it is divergent with all the accompanying indicators.  This divergence is expected to break in the coming week.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL:No change  The SPXL indicator is on its third buy signal and none of these signals have been invalidated by the recent price retreat.  The SPXL indicators are now in oversold territory and setting up for a new buy signal with any upward move in the SP500.

Europe: No change: The STOXX50 STORMM indicators generated a new buy signal in early July and is bouncing around mid-channel for the STORMM indicators waiting for the major trend upward to pick up again.  The TMS and Renko chart are also displaying this temporary indecision.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 8/11/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 7/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

Several of our long- term charts are signaling an approaching bottom.  On page two of our STOCKCHARTS listings you’ll find the BINYBT breath chart and the bottom finder chart are reaching into extremely oversold conditions.  

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The US bond yield signals remain on a rising yield signal from the STORMM indicators but the accompanying charts signal a decline.  A divergence we anticipate breaking this coming week.

TNX weekly (8/11/17) Rising yields:   A surprising turn back up in nearly all the indicators further supports the STORMM signal for rising yields

TNX monthly (7/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point yields kicked back to rising.

USD:  The USD remains on a buy signal from the STORMM indicators but again the accompanying indicators are on a sell signal.  A divergence we anticipate breaking this coming week.

Oil (and commodities):No change Both generated new buy signals and have advanced while the USD has weakened.  The recent STORMM minor retreat signal appears to have finished and the major trend upward has resumed.

VIX: The VIX generated a buy signal near the end of July and as the Bollinger Bands contracted spiked from mid channel to overbought levels.  The VIX has broken through all three of the overhead sell signal lines on the Bollinger Bands and we anticipate this forecast a bottom for equities is coming.  

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change This set of  indicators have picked up their decline after a late 2016 bounce and is still below its 200dMA.  The continuation of deflationary signals has not been reversed by the recent bounce in US bond yields or the USD.