072219 Monday update

Highlights:  New STORMM signal for the SP500 that fully supported by all the accompanying indicators.    Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: Since our last update all the STORMM indicators have turned from overbought to declining values and generated a sell signal.  Immediately following that change all the accompanying charts turned within a few days to initiate sell signals (the NYMO preceded with a sell signal by 2 weeks).   A retracement of the rally from early June would test the SP2910-2920 level.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: The components of the Elder set are deteriorating after the June buy signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: Is on buy from 1/1/19 and we’re expecting a pull back test in the next 4-5 months from that signal.  Time is running out on a major pull back from this technical chart.  Possibly some weakness as we proceed into summer but each week leads to a lower probability of retesting the Dec’18 lows.

It appears the pull back we’ve been anticipating may have ended and the full bull forecast for the Zweig breath indicator may now be underway.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 7/22/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 6/19) 3buy 1 split;  The monthly charts have significantly improved with three buy charts and one on a split call but nearly fully in the buy zone.

VIX: The VIX has generated two buy signals with the early June signal failing and the mid-June signal still progressing.  With the VIX at mid-channel it could spike at anytime but currently is not leading or forecasting an equity move like it typically does.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield No change: After a minor rise in rates during April the return to the major trend down has reasserted itself and the new STORMM signal for declining rates joined the earlier signal from January.  All the accompanying indicators confirm this signal for bond yields.

TNX weekly (7/22/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (6/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: The USD STORMM indicators have generated a sell signal that is progressing toward full validation and is in need of wider support from the accompanying indicators.

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071319 Weekend update

Highlights:  Will the USD STORMM indicator solidify a new sell signal and also influence the deflationary: inflationary signals?     Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: No change The valid STORMM signal remains on a buy with all the accompanying indicators (except the NYMO) supporting this call.   The STORMM indicators are all in very overbought territory which signaled a minor retracement is anticipated (and started Friday) to then be followed by a resumption of the major trend upward.  The DOW and NAZ also have the same alignment of STORMM indicators which strengthens the current price forecast.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: The components of the Elder set have generated a buy signal at the beginning of June but this new signal is on thin ice given the deteriorating 50 day new high percentage of stocks.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: Is on buy from 1/1/19 and we’re expecting a pull back test in the next 4-5 months from that signal.  Time is running out on a major pull back from this technical chart.  Possibly some weakness as we proceed into summer but each week leads to a lower probability of retesting the Dec’18 lows.

It appears the pull back we’ve been anticipating may have ended and the full bull forecast for the Zweig breath indicator may now be underway.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 7/8/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 6/19) 3buy 1 split;  The monthly charts have significantly improved with three buy charts and one on a split call but nearly fully in the buy zone.

VIX: The VIX failed after its last buy signal to breach the mid-channel zone and retreated.  Again the VIX returned to oversold levels and generated a buy signal from Friday’s session.  This is a negative for equities but given the daily, weekly, and monthly indicators we anticipate the VIX will fail to spike to overbought territory.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield No change: After a minor rise in rates during April the return to the major trend down has reasserted itself and the new STORMM signal for declining rates joined the earlier signal from January.  All the accompanying indicators confirm this signal for bond yields.

TNX weekly (7/8/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (6/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  The USD STORMM indicators have generated a sell signal that is progressing toward full validation and is in need of wider support from the accompanying indicators.

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070919 Monday update

Highlights:  Declining bond yields forecast on daily, weekly, and monthly charts with deflationary signals continuing = Fed pressure in July to decrease rates.     Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The valid STORMM signal remains on a buy with all the accompanying indicators (except the NYMO) supporting this call.   The STORMM indicators are all in very overbought territory which signaled a minor retracement is anticipated (and started Friday) to then be followed by a resumption of the major trend upward.  The DOW and NAZ also have the same alignment of STORMM indicators which strengthens the current price forecast.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: The components of the Elder set have generated a buy signal at the beginning of June but this new signal is on thin ice given the deteriorating 50 day new high percentage of stocks.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: Is on buy from 1/1/19 and we’re expecting a pull back test in the next 4-5 months from that signal.  Time is running out on a major pull back from this technical chart.  Possibly some weakness as we proceed into summer but each week leads to a lower probability of retesting the Dec’18 lows.

It appears the pull back we’ve been anticipating may have ended and the full bull forecast for the Zweig breath indicator may now be underway.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 7/8/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 6/19) 3buy 1 split;  The monthly charts have significantly improved with three buy charts and one on a split call but nearly fully in the buy zone.

VIX: The VIX failed after its last buy signal to breach the mid-channel zone and retreated.  Again the VIX returned to oversold levels and generated a buy signal from Friday’s session.  This is a negative for equities but given the daily, weekly, and monthly indicators we anticipate the VIX will fail to spike to overbought territory.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield No change: After a minor rise in rates during April the return to the major trend down has reasserted itself and the new STORMM signal for declining rates joined the earlier signal from January.  All the accompanying indicators confirm this signal for bond yields.

TNX weekly (7/8/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (6/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: The USD generated a STORMM sell signal on 4/1 that failed with the recent spike in the USD.  This unusual counter trend move to declining bond yields has put us back to the buy signal from late January that is aligned with all the accompanying charts except the Pring indicator that is on a sell from 5/13.

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061519 Weekend update

Highlights: On the cusp of a new STORMM sell signal for SP500 unless a substantial rally develops off the FED meeting.  Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The valid STORMM signal remains on a buy with all the accompanying indicators supporting this call.  However, all but one (indicator #3) crossed their signal line in the last few days and generated an individual sell signal.   So we’re on the cusp of a new sell signal unless a substantial rally develops off the FED meeting.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  The components of the Elder set have generated a buy signal at the beginning of June but this new signal is on thin ice given the deteriorating 50 day new high percentage of stocks.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: Is on buy from 1/1/19 and we’re expecting a pull back test in the next 4-5 months from that signal.  Time is running out on a major pull back from this technical chart.  Possibly some weakness as we proceed into summer but each week leads to a lower probability of retesting the Dec’18 lows.

It appears the pull back we’ve been anticipating may have ended and the full bull forecast for the Zweig breath indicator may now be underway.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 6/7/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 5/19) 1 Buy: 2 sell: 1 split;  The monthly charts have deteriorated in May with two on sell, one on a buy, and one split.   All have a deteriorating trend which swings the monthly call to a sell.

VIX: The VIX is still sitting a mid-channel with the BBands narrowing which is a troubling trend for equities.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield No change: After a minor rise in rates during April the return to the major trend down has reasserted itself and the new STORMM signal for declining rates joined the earlier signal from January.  All the accompanying indicators confirm this signal for bond yields.

TNX weekly (6/7/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (5/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:The USD generated a STORMM sell signal on 4/1 that failed with the recent spike in the USD.  This unusual counter trend move to declining bond yields has put us back to the buy signal from late January that is aligned with all the accompanying charts except the Pring indicator that is on a sell from 5/13.

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060819 Weekend update

Highlights: The pull back we’ve been anticipating may have ended and  bull forecast for the Zweig breath indicator may now be underway. Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The FED’s implied reversal to lower rates and potential QE (again/more) quickly turned an oversold STORMM set of indicators into a new buy signal that remains valid.   For the technical indicators all but the Walker and Pring sets support this new buy signal with the Walker and Pring indicators trending to new buy signals soon.  The STORMM indicators are rapidly moving or already in overbought territory and we suspect the next STORMM signal will be an extreme oversold setup that forecasts a minor reversal and then resumption of the major trend upward.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change:  The components of this technical set have moved to generate a new sell signal and forecasting the top from early May is in.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: Is on buy from 1/1/19 and we’re expecting a pull back test in the next 4-5 months from that signal.  Time is running out on a major pull back from this technical chart.  Possibly some weakness as we proceed into summer but each week leads to a lower probability of retesting the Dec’18 lows.

It appears the pull back we’ve been anticipating may have ended and the full bull forecast for the Zweig breath indicator may now be underway.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 6/7/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 5/19) 1 Buy: 2 sell: 1 split;  The monthly charts have deteriorated in May with two on sell, one on a buy, and one split.   All have a deteriorating trend which swings the monthly call to a sell.

VIX: The VIX is still sitting a mid-channel with the BBands narrowing which is a troubling trend for equities.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield No change: After a minor rise in rates during April the return to the major trend down has reasserted itself and the new STORMM signal for declining rates joined the earlier signal from January.  All the accompanying indicators confirm this signal for bond yields.

TNX weekly (6/7/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (5/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: The USD generated a STORMM sell signal on 4/1 that failed with the recent spike in the USD.  This unusual counter trend move to declining bond yields has put us back to the buy signal from late January that is aligned with all the accompanying charts.

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