042019 Weekend update

Highlights:  Second US bond yield signal that rates will renew their decline. – details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The SP500 has followed through and from overbought STORMM indicators generated a new sell signal.   Of the accompanying indicators only the NYMO supports this new sell signal.

The key test now if breaking the previous high from Oct’18 at 2930.  This coming test will support or invalidate the larger head and shoulders formation discussed previously.  More important is the severity of the next decline which signals or rejects that we’re still in bear market.

On a larger view the SP500 is tracing out a head and shoulders formation and we’re currently on the right shoulder of that formation.  The left shoulder is the early 2018 peak, the head at the Sept ’18 high and now the right should formation is ongoing.  The neck-line connects the early 2018 lows with the Dec’18 low and requires a substantial drop in the SP500 to confirm a break of the neckline – so we see this technical as a low probability for now.  – TO BE TESTED SOON.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 yearly:  A new monthly chart that is a collection of several indicators with an explanation below the chart.   Nearly all indicators on this chart except the MACD support a continuation of the 2019 rally however some weakness is starting to appear on this chart

Zweig breath thrust chart:  Is on buy from 1/1/19 and we’re expecting a pull back test in the next 4-5 months from that signal.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 4/20/19): 2 buy :1 Sell; A split decision on the weekly charts but overall a buy.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 3/19) 2 Buy: 1 split;  The monthly indicators have improved and we now have two on a strong buy and one chart with a split decision – on balance a buy signal

VIX: No change:  The VIX buy signal from last week failed at mid-channel and the VIX is now crossing the lower Bollinger Band – setting up for another buy signal as equities rally.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:   The STORMM indicators remain on a strong declining yield signal and their recent oversold levels signal that there will be a slight uptick in rates to be followed by a renewed decline as the major trend.  This minor pop in rates appears to be over and the STORMM indicators have generated a second declining yield signal.

TNX weekly (4/20/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (3/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart is now fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: The USD generated a STORMM sell signal on 4/1 that is not yet supported by the accompanying charts.  But given the US bond yield forecast that is broadly supported by all its indicators, we accept the current USD forecast for a decline near term. Read more of this post

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041319 Weekend update

Highlights:   Inflation indicators starting to move – details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The SP500 has followed through a bounce after a minor retracement as our last set of indicators forecast.  The indicators are rising to overbought territory and we’re watching to see what the next signal will be.   The key test now if breaking the previous high from Oct’18 at 2930.  This coming test will support or invalidate the larger head and shoulders formation discussed previously.  More important is the severity of the next decline which signals or rejects that we’re still in bear market.

On a larger view the SP500 is tracing out a head and shoulders formation and we’re currently on the right shoulder of that formation.  The left shoulder is the early 2018 peak, the head at the Sept ’18 high and now the right should formation is ongoing.  The neck-line connects the early 2018 lows with the Dec’18 low and requires a substantial drop in the SP500 to confirm a break of the neckline – so we see this technical as a low probability for now.  – TO BE TESTED SOON.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 yearly A new monthly chart that is a collection of several indicators with an explanation below the chart.   Nearly all indicators on this chart except the MACD support a continuation of the 2019 rally.

Zweig breath thrust chart:  Is on buy from 1/1/19 and we’re expecting a pull back test in the next 4-5 months from that signal.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 4/13/19): 2 buy :1 Sell; A split decision on the weekly charts but overall a buy.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 3/19) 2 Buy: 1 split;  The monthly indicators have improved and we now have two on a strong buy and one chart with a split decision – on balance a buy signal

VIX: The VIX buy signal from last week failed at mid-channel and the VIX is now crossing the lower Bollinger Band – setting up for another buy signal as equities rally.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  The STORMM indicators remain on a strong declining yield signal and their recent oversold levels signal that there will be a slight uptick in rates to be followed by a renewed decline.  Not a good sign for equities.  All the accompanying indicators align with the STORMM signal for declining yields.

We’re halfway through the current forecast for rates. 

TNX weekly (4/13/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (3/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart is now fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: The USD generated a STORMM sell signal on 4/1 that is not yet supported by the accompanying charts.  But given the US bond yield forecast that is broadly supported by all its indicators, we accept the current USD forecast for a decline near term.

Oil (and commodities): Oil and commodities are on a buy signal and with the USD forecast for a decline we anticipate continuation of the oil / commodity rally.

Pring business cycle: Advisor Perspectives The Pring business cycle graphs now has all three elements above their moving average signal line with commodities crossing to the plus side recently.  This progress the business cycle phases described by Pring from two to three and moving out of the economic contraction of the last few months.  The next important move is a retest of the 250MA for commodities to confirm the new signal.  In stage three inflation sensitive assets should start to perform better.

Pring deflation: inflation:  This indicator is below its 200 dMA but on the verge of generating new signal of inflation.

 

040619 Weekend update

Highlights:   VIX TNX SP500 signals forecast a near term retreat for the SP500 on declining bond yields then a renewed equity rally. New USD and inflation signals details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The rise on Friday invalidated our last STORMM signal which was a sell on 3/21 with a greater than 2% violation and we’re now back to buy signal from March 11.   We also have indicator #2 in extremely overbought and signaling that a minor retracement to be followed by a rally to new highs (from this current uptrend).  The accompanying charts are mixed but the Walker, NYAD, and Renko charts are on a new buy signal.   The next uptrend will likely challenge the 2018 high and we’ll be able to see if the head shoulders formation breaks down or develops.

On a larger view the SP500 is tracing out a head and shoulders formation and we’re currently on the right shoulder of that formation.  The left shoulder is the early 2018 peak, the head at the Sept ’18 high and now the right should formation is ongoing.  The neck-line connects the early 2018 lows with the Dec’18 low and requires a substantial drop in the SP500 to confirm a break of the neckline – so we see this technical as a low probability for now.  – TO BE TESTED SOON.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 yearly  A new monthly chart that is a collection of several indicators with an explanation below the chart.  Currently the bottom line is this chart is starting to display weakness in the current rally and supports the current STORMM signal.  More significantly the ROC125 and the MACD at the bottom of the chart both signal the market is still in a bear market and therefore the recent rally is only a bear market rally and not a new bull market.

The ROC125 is close to crossing it zero line from negative territory which would put all the indicators on this chart in bull territory.  Next week is a key inflection point

Zweig breath thrust chart:  Is on buy from 1/1/19 and we’re expecting a pull back test in the next 4-5 months.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 3/30/19): 2 buy :1 Sell; A split decision on the weekly charts but overall a buy.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 3/19) 2 Buy: 1 split;  The monthly indicators have improved and we now have two on a strong buy and one chart with a split decision – on balance a buy signal

VIX: The VIX has spiked and gone through two of its Bollinger bands then settled to mid-channel.  Typically there is a follow-up spike through all three upper bands but in this recent setup the VIX declined and on Friday did a intraday cross of its lower BB.  With the SP500 signaling a minor decline then a renewed rally we suspect the VIX is now confirming with its buy signal from Friday.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  The STORMM indicators remain on a strong declining yield signal and their recent oversold levels signal that there will be a slight uptick in rates to be followed by a renewed decline.  Not a good sign for equities.  All the accompanying indicators align with the STORMM signal for declining yields.

We’re halfway through the current forecast for rates. 

TNX weekly (3/30/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (3/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart is now fully on declining yields.

USD:  The USD generated a STORMM sell signal on 4/1 that is not yet supported by the accompanying charts.  But given the US bond yield forecast that is broadly supported by all its indicators, we accept the current USD forecast for a decline near term.

Oil (and commodities): Oil and commodities are on a buy signal and with the USD forecast for a decline we anticipate continuation of the oil / commodity rally.

Pring business cycle: Advisor Perspectives The Pring business cycle graphs have bonds and equities moving above its 250dMA while commodities are below.   This jumps us from a previous cycle 5 stage to a cycle 2 which is in the middle of an ongoing economic contraction.  If correct it suggests we have briefly gone through cycle stage 1 in Q4’18 which is an early economic contraction stage and we’re now bottoming in the current economic contraction.  The next stage (3) leads to more inflationary pressure which we’re starting to see in both series of indicators – but a not yet a new inflation signal.  This shortened progression is likely due to the Fed’s rapid reversal in policy that will likely allow equities and bonds to rise while stoking inflationary trends as 2019 progresses.

Pring deflation: inflation:  This indicator is below its 200 dMA but on the verge of generating new signal of inflation

033019 Weekend update

Highlights:  Indicators forecast daily rise in US bond yields (TNX) then renewed decline.  Weekly, monthly yield charts all on declining yields.    Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The four STORMM indicators generated a sell signal on March 21 and we also now have all the accompanying indicators aligned with a sell signal.  The bounce in the last few days has not invalidated the current sell signal nor have the indicators dropped to the point to sufficiently generate a buy signal.  The same chop we saw at the beginning of this signal continues.

On a larger view the SP500 is tracing out a head and shoulders formation and we’re currently on the right shoulder of that formation.  The left shoulder is the early 2018 peak, the head at the Sept ’18 high and now the right should formation is ongoing.  The neck-line connects the early 2018 lows with the Dec’18 low and requires a substantial drop in the SP500 to confirm a break of the neckline – so we see this technical as a low probability for now.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 yearly  A new monthly chart that is a collection of several indicators with an explanation below the chart.  Currently the bottom line is this chart is starting to display weakness in the current rally and supports the current STORMM signal.  More significantly the ROC125 and the MACD at the bottom of the chart both signal the market is still in a bear market and therefore the recent rally is only a bear market rally and not a new bull market.

Zweig breath thrust chart:  Is on buy from 1/1/19 and we’re expecting a pull back test in the next 4-5 months.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 3/30/19): 2 buy :1 Sell; A split decision on the weekly charts but overall a buy.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 3/19) 2 Buy: 1 split;  The monthly indicators have improved and we now have two on a strong buy and one chart with a split decision – on balance a buy signal

VIX: The VIX has spiked and predicted the recent equity weakness.   It has returned to mid-channel and is likely setting up for one more thrust higher.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The STORMM indicators remain on a strong declining yield signal and their recent oversold levels signal that there will be a slight uptick in rates to be followed by a renewed decline.  Not a good sign for equities.  All the accompanying indicators align with the STORMM signal for declining yields.

TNX weekly (3/30/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (3/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart is now fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: A the start of February the USD STORMM and accompanying indicators all aligned for a buy signal which puts the USD divergent to the US bond yield trends.

Oil (and commodities): No change: Oil and commodities are on a buy signal

Pring business cycle: Advisor Perspectives The Pring business cycle graphs have bonds and equities moving above its 250dMA while commodities are below.   This jumps us from a previous cycle 5 stage to a cycle 2 which is in the middle of an ongoing economic contraction.  If correct it suggests we briefly gone through cycle stage 1 in Q4’18 which is an early economic contraction stage and we’re now bottoming in the current economic contraction.  The next stage (3) leads to more inflationary pressure.  This shortened progression is likely due to the Fed’s rapid reversal in policy that will likely allow equities and bonds to rise while stoking inflationary trends as 2019 progresses.

Pring deflation: inflation:  This indicator is below its 200 dMA and signaling continued deflation as bond yields weaken.  The USD rally is a divergent move from bond yields and deflationary signals — likely a move to safety as global economies weaken ahead of the US.

032419 Weekend update

Highlights: New STORMM signal for the SP500 aligns with all the accompanying charts.  Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The four STORMM indicators generated a sell signs on March 21 and we also now have all the accompanying indicators aligned with a sell signal.  This STORMM sell signal took several days to convincingly generate its new signal so we’ll be watching closely to see if this affects the degree of retracement in the SP500.

On a larger view the SP500 is tracing out a head and shoulders formation and we’re currently on the right shoulder of that formation.  The left shoulder is the early 2018 peak, the head at the Sept ’18 high and now the right should formation is on-going.  The neck-line connects the early 2018 lows with the Dec’18 low and requires a substantial drop in the SP500 to confirm a break of the neckline – so we see this technical as a low probability for now.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 3/16/19): 1 Sell: 2 Buy: A split decision on the weekly charts but we’ve added one buy signal to the weekly.  The current downtrend is challenging these new buy signals.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 2/19): 2 Sell: 1 Buy:  The monthly indicators are also currently split with two on a sell signal and one on a buy as the end of the month approaches

VIX: The VIX has spiked and predicted the recent equity weakness.   It has so far only crossed one of its upper BBands and we anticipate we’ll see a larger spike before this equity retracement is over.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change: The STORMM indicators have quickly moved to overbought levels for the 10 yr bond yield and have generated a new declining yield signal.  We now have the TMS and Renko indicators supporting a declining yield STORMM signal with the Pring KST indicator trending to confirm.

TNX weekly (3/9/19) Declining yields:  The weekly has finally switched to a declining yield signal

TNX monthly (2/19) Declining yields:  The monthly yield chart has turned ahead of the weekly and confirmed the STORMM declining yield signal.

USD: No change: A the start of February the USD STORMM and accompanying indicators all aligned for a buy signal which puts the USD divergent to the US bond yield trends.  Possibly a signal responding to a growing sense of market fear globally?

Oil (and commodities): No change: Oil and commodities are on a buy signal and the recent overbought alignment of these indicators has signal a minor decline which has completed and a continued major rally which is on-going.

Pring business cycle: Advisor Perspectives The Pring business cycle graphs have bonds moving above its 250dMA while equities and commodities are below. We’re not fully convinced the positive bond graph will hold and the latest STORMM signal for resumption of rising rates supports this view.  Therefore we’re assuming we’re in a stage 5 to stage 6 transition in the Pring business cycles.   Stage five advises to reduce stock holdings while stage six advises to reduce inflation hedges (raise cash).

Pring deflation: inflation:  This indicator is below its 200 dMA and signaling continued deflation as bond yield weaken.  The USD rally is a divergent move from bond yields and deflationary signals.