091519 Weekend update

Highlights: The US ten year bond yield has confirmed its turn toward higher rates.  The weekly and monthly yield charts have not yet signaled a trend change. Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  We currently have a valid STORMM buy signal that was finally confirmed on 9/11.  The STORMM indicators finished the week  very overbought forecasting a minor pullback to be followed by a resumption of the rally.  With the events in the Middle East over the weekend it appears we’ll have the pullback quickly.    All the accompanying indicators on a strong buy signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 9/13/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 8/19) 3 buys;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 8/19) Buy.   This US treasury yield to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator that is starting to display a trend change that could lead to a sell signal.

VIX: The recent equity rally has pushed the mid-channel VIX lower and the price continues to erode following the lower Bollinger Bands down.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:

9/5 We’re seeing a small uptick or movement toward rising yields on several of the daily US bond indicators but we’ll wait to see if they hold before accepting them as valid.

It became very clear in the past week that this observation was valid this time and the STORMM indicators plus all the accompanying technical indicators have turned to rising yields on the daily chart.  The next question is how long this lasts to begin to turn the weekly and monthly charts.

TNX weekly (9/15/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (8/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: The USD has STORMM indicators have several failed sell signals in a row to receive overbought conditions but the late June STORMM buy signal holds.

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091119 Wednesday update

Highlights: New STORMM SP500 signal resolves todayDetails at STORMM Blog

A difficult day for America but we’re not forgetting all who passed and especially all who sacrificed for others on 9/11.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The last two STORMM sell signals remain valid but the recent rally has turned the majority of the accompanying indicators to a buy status.  This is the first time in August that the accompanying indicators have together signaled a new bullish rally and even the Pring bottom finder has generated a signal in the past week.  We could be setup for a move out of this trading channel.

9/5: The rally out of the August channel appears to be on.  However, the price action has stopped at the FIB 0.78 retracement level.  If the rally can extend through this overhead resistance then we’ll have to reverse the recent 8/7 buy signal.  The accompanying indicators have been favoring a rally with their signals and the SAR joined them with a buy signal on 9/5 – only the NYMO remains on a sell signal.

9/11: Finally with today’s close STORMM indicator #1 went into overbought conditions signaling a minor retreat next to be followed by moves to new highs.  This and the price action breaking above the FIB 0.78 retracement level confirms that the STORMM buy signal from 8/7 is valid.  Normally it takes 4-5 days to confirm this type of signal so close to a MACD negative cross but finally after 4 weeks we’re have confirmation (and a positive crossing MACD). 

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 9/5/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal but erosion is starting to setup

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 8/19) 3 buys;  The monthly charts remain on a buy but erosion is starting to appear.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 7/19) Buy.   This US treasury yield to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator that is starting to display a trend change that could lead to a sell signal.

VIX: The recent equity rally has pushed the mid-channel VIX lower and on Friday it crossed the lower Bollinger Band which is the first step in setting up a new buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield No change: After a minor rise in rates during April the return to the major trend down has reasserted itself and the new STORMM signal for declining rates joined the earlier signal from January.  All the accompanying indicators confirm this signal for bond yields.

We’re seeing a small uptick or movement toward rising yields on several of the daily US bond indicators but we’ll wait to see if they hold before accepting them as valid.

TNX weekly (9/5/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (8/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: The USD has STORMM indicators have several failed sell signals in a row to receive overbought conditions but the late June STORMM buy signal holds.

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090519 Weekend update

Highlights: Small uptick toward rising yields on several of daily US bond indicators but we’ll wait to see if they hold before accepting them as valid. Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The last two STORMM sell signals remain valid but the recent rally has turned the majority of the accompanying indicators to a buy status.  This is the first time in August that the accompanying indicators have together signaled a new bullish rally and even the Pring bottom finder has generated a signal in the past week.  We could be setup for a move out of this trading channel.

9/5: The rally out of the August channel appears to be on.  However, the price action has stopped at the FIB 0.78 retracement level.  If the rally can extend through this overhead resistance then we’ll have to reverse the recent 8/7 buy signal.  The accompanying indicators have been favoring a rally with their signals and the SAR joined them with a buy signal on 9/5 – only the NYMO remains on a sell signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 9/5/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal but erosion is starting to setup

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 8/19) 3 buys;  The monthly charts remain on a buy but erosion is starting to appear.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 7/19) Buy.   This US treasury yield to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator that is starting to display a trend change that could lead to a sell signal.

VIX: The recent equity rally has pushed the mid-channel VIX lower and on Friday it crossed the lower Bollinger Band which is the first step in setting up a new buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield No change: After a minor rise in rates during April the return to the major trend down has reasserted itself and the new STORMM signal for declining rates joined the earlier signal from January.  All the accompanying indicators confirm this signal for bond yields.

We’re seeing a small uptick or movement toward rising yields on several of the daily US bond indicators but we’ll wait to see if they hold before accepting them as valid.

TNX weekly (9/5/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (8/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: The USD has STORMM indicators have several failed sell signals in a row to receive overbought conditions but the late June STORMM buy signal holds.

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090119 Weekend update

Highlights:  STORMM equity signals remain on a sell while many of the accompanying indicators have switched to a buy.  This week could be an important inflection point for the SP500.      Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The last two STORMM sell signals remain valid but the recent rally has turned the majority of the accompanying indicators to a buy status.  This is the first time in August that the accompanying indicators have together signaled a new bullish rally and even the Pring bottom finder has generated a signal in the past week.  We could be setup for a move out of this trading channel.   However, the early and very responsive NYMO has generated a sell signal on 8/26 and the SAR chart has only two of three needed signals to confirm a buy.   Currently, we’re waiting to see if the price channel that has formed during August is broken to the upside before considering this rally a test of the current double STORMM sell signals.  Given the trade moves this weekend we don’t see how a breakout of this channel will occur but let’s wait and see the price action (especially closes) this coming week.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: The components of the Elder set have all deteriorated and now support a sell signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 9/1/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal but erosion is starting to setup

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 8/19) 3 buys;  The monthly charts remain on a buy but erosion is starting to appear.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 7/19) Buy.   This US treasury yield to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator that is starting to display a trend change that could lead to a sell signal.

VIX: No change.  From mid-channel the VIS has only risen to 20 which is not sufficient to generate any BB sell signals and is not typical of a major top (>30).  The VIX has much further to go  before a significant top.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield No change: After a minor rise in rates during April the return to the major trend down has reasserted itself and the new STORMM signal for declining rates joined the earlier signal from January.  All the accompanying indicators confirm this signal for bond yields.

TNX weekly (9/1/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (8/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: The USD has STORMM indicators have several failed sell signals in a row to receive overbought conditions but the late June STORMM buy signal holds.

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082319 Weekend update

Highlights: Bearish technical is forming for the SP500 and could execute in the next two weeks.  Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators generated a buy signal on 8/5 that was immediately after a divergent MACD cross of its zero line.  In this setup the buy signal has a low probability of retaining validation and any trend change to the downside within 5 days of the buy signal can invalidate.  

Reaching validation of this recent buy signal was stretching out in time well beyond  the typical 4-5 days and appeared to be on the cusp of reaching full validation until Friday’s afternoon turn of events in the US China trade disagreement.  All the accompanying indicators were almost set to support a new buy signal as well but have turned quickly back to sell signals.  We now reject the 8/5 buy signal and the two STORMM sell signals from July remain as the valid calls.

The technical declining triangle we mentioned last weekend appeared to be reaching rejection until price action this week brought it back from the near-dead.  Friday’s drop ended right at the support line.    The support line is rather large around SP2825-40 but the size of the formation is the scary forecast and potential for a significant drop if it executes.

The STORMM indicators during the last two weeks were slowly rising with the equity market and approached overbought levels which now support a large point decline as a possibility.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: The components of the Elder set have all deteriorated and now support a sell signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 8/23/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal but erosion is starting to setup

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 7/19) 3 buy;  The monthly charts remain on a buy but erosion is starting to appear.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 7/19) Buy.   This US treasury yield to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator that is starting to display a trend change that could lead to a sell signal.

VIX:  From mid-channel the VIS has only risen to 20 which is not sufficient to generate any BB sell signals and is not typical of a major top (>30).  The VIX has much further to go  before a significant top.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield No change: After a minor rise in rates during April the return to the major trend down has reasserted itself and the new STORMM signal for declining rates joined the earlier signal from January.  All the accompanying indicators confirm this signal for bond yields.

TNX weekly (8/23/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (7/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: The USD has STORMM indicators that have just signaled a sell by the smallest of margins so we’re going to wait for further moves before validating the current signal.

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