021018 Weekend update

Highlight:  The negative for a sustained equity rally is the rising US bond yields seen on all time frames and their associated indicators.  A very strong trend higher in yields that is a strong ceiling for a sustained equity rally.

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 STORMM indicators remain on a buy signal from August 21 which has not been invalidated by the current retracement and the last STORMM signal of a minor retracement to be followed by a renewed rally remains in play.   While our last post was inaccurate in calculating the size of this pullback our STORMM indicators have held and the NYMO indicator is the first of our accompanying series to signal a new buy signal.  The other accompanying indicators are starting to turn more positive and we expect this to continue.  The big question now is weather this is a B wave starting to form off the 200dMA today or if the retracement is over.  Our indicators can’t answer this question but they do predict that this is not the start of a bear market and a return to new highs is coming next.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

The negative for a sustained equity rally is the rising US bond yields seen on all time frames and their associated indicators.   A very strong trend higher in yields that is a strong ceiling for a sustained equity rally.

SPXL: No changeThe SPXL indicators went through two sell signals in October and then generated a buy signal on November 16th.   And again just after the beginning of the year reverted back to a sell signal.

Europe:No change  The STOX50 has a missed sell signal and we now have the TMS plus Renko charts aligned to a sell signal in the current decline.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 2/9/18): Buy All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/18): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:No change  The ten  year bond yields has now three rising yield STORMM signals which is a very strong trend confirmation.  And all the accompanying indicators support this call.  Aligned with a weekly and monthly rising rate signal the overall trend is clearly entrenched for the near term.

TNX weekly (2/9/18) Rising yields:   A weakening trend with some of the indicators crossing into declining yield territory

TNX monthly (1/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point with a partial set of indicators signaling declining yields

USD: The USD has finally responded to rising US bond yields and turned this past week to a STORMM buy signal with all the accompanying indicators supporting this signal.

Oil (and commodities): With the strengthening USD the oil/gold/commodity charts are declining but have not yet invalidated their previous strong set of STORMM buy signals.  Similar to the SP500 the STORMM signals for commodities signals a minor retracement in an on-going rally.

VIX: We’ve ignored this chart given the flat-lining or minor spiking characteristic for the last few months.  However, the buy signal on January 1 was important and the climb that followed when through the typical three spikes crossing the upper Bollinger Bands.

Pring business cycle: No change: With all three components of the Pring business cycle in a positive position relative to their 250dMA we’re now in a stage two early stage business cycle.  The normal progression of the cycles through a recessionary status before the early stages has been skipped most likely due to the financial engineering by the FED.  This new cycle alignment does support the initiation of new bull market in 2017 which is at odds with many financial commentators.

Pring deflation: inflation:No change This indicator set appears to be starting rally above its 250dMA as the USD weakens -a trend that appears to be taking hold and not part of the market noise.

 

 

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020618 Tuesday update

Highlight: Last call from the STORMM indicators of minor retracement and survival of the major trend upward from Aug’17 appears tested and valid from today’s price action. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 STORMM indicators remain on a buy signal from August 21 while the price decline this week has turned all the accompanying indicators to a sell.  This week’s alignment of STORMM indicators signal a minor decline in an on-going of uptrend from August 21.  We expect the major trend will take the SP500 to a new ATH.

Tuesday update:  All the accompanying indicators are starting to turn toward a new buy signal including the SP500 STORMM indicators.  Today’s decline fits with the last STORMM indicator call of a minor retracement in an on-going rally – not the start of a major trend down.   The chart below illustrates this call with the rally from Aug 2017 or the last STORMM buy signal leading to the 2874 top followed by a retracement to the FIB 61.8% line (2590) today.  This is probably the lowest point for this retracement but further volatility ahead could retest this line or bounce around the 38-50% retracement zone before resuming the move to an ATH.    The STORMM indicators advance call for a minor retracement and survival of the major trend upward from the last STORMM buy signal appears to be still valid. 

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: No changeThe SPXL indicators went through two sell signals in October and then generated a buy signal on November 16th.   And again just after the beginning of the year reverted back to a sell signal.

Europe:No change  The STOX50 has a  buy signal that has now reached full validation and the STORMM indicators are moving back to another buy signal.  However the TMS plus Renko charts have switched to a sell signal in the current decline.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 2/3/18): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/18): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:No change  The ten  year bond yields has now three rising yield STORMM signals which is a very strong trend confirmation.  And all the accompanying indicators support this call.  Aligned with a weekly and monthly rising rate signal the overall trend is clearly entrenched for the near term.

TNX weekly (2/3/18) Rising yields:   A weakening trend with some of the indicators crossing into declining yield territory

TNX monthly (1/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point with a partial set of indicators signaling declining yields

USD:No change:  The divergence we saw last month for the USD has resolved on Dec 12th with a validated USD sell signal that is supported strongly by all the accompanying indicators.  This is surprising given the direction of bond yields but inflationary conditions are growing.

Oil (and commodities): No change: Both oil and commodities generated  a third STORMM buy signal in November of 2017 and the upward trend since then is strong and clear.

VIX:No change  The VIX and its VIX:SPY ratio are reaching into new volatility suppressed territory.  At the moment there are now developing signals but the VIX SPY ratio is extremely overstretched and the Bollinger bands for the VIX are tightening.

Pring business cycle: No change: With all three components of the Pring business cycle in a positive position relative to their 250dMA we’re now in a stage two early stage business cycle.  The normal progression of the cycles through a recessionary status before the early stages has been skipped most likely due to the financial engineering by the FED.  This new cycle alignment does support the initiation of new bull market in 2017 which is at odds with many financial commentators.

Pring deflation: inflation:No change This indicator set appears to be starting rally above its 250dMA as the USD weakens -a trend that appears to be taking hold and not part of the market noise.

 

 

020318 Weekend update

Highlight: Status of the current SP500 pull back was signaled by our indicators before it began.  Details in this weekend’s update. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 STORMM indicators remain on a buy signal from August 21 while the price decline this week has turned all the accompanying indicators to a sell.  This week’s alignment of STORMM indicators signal a minor decline in an on-going of uptrend from August 21.  We expect the major trend will take the SP500 to a new ATH.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: No changeThe SPXL indicators went through two sell signals in October and then generated a buy signal on November 16th.   And again just after the beginning of the year reverted back to a sell signal.

Europe:  The STOX50 has a  buy signal that has now reached full validation and the STORMM indicators are moving back to another buy signal.  However the TMS plus Renko charts have switched to a sell signal in the current decline.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 2/3/18): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/18): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:No change  The ten  year bond yields has now three rising yield STORMM signals which is a very strong trend confirmation.  And all the accompanying indicators support this call.  Aligned with a weekly and monthly rising rate signal the overall trend is clearly entrenched for the near term.

TNX weekly (2/3/18) Rising yields:   A weakening trend with some of the indicators crossing into declining yield territory

TNX monthly (1/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point with a partial set of indicators signaling declining yields

USD:No change:  The divergence we saw last month for the USD has resolved on Dec 12th with a validated USD sell signal that is supported strongly by all the accompanying indicators.  This is surprising given the direction of bond yields but inflationary conditions are growing.

Oil (and commodities): No change: Both oil and commodities generated  a third STORMM buy signal in November of 2017 and the upward trend since then is strong and clear.

VIX:No change  The VIX and its VIX:SPY ratio are reaching into new volatility suppressed territory.  At the moment there are now developing signals but the VIX SPY ratio is extremely overstretched and the Bollinger bands for the VIX are tightening.

Pring business cycle: No change: With all three components of the Pring business cycle in a positive position relative to their 250dMA we’re now in a stage two early stage business cycle.  The normal progression of the cycles through a recessionary status before the early stages has been skipped most likely due to the financial engineering by the FED.  This new cycle alignment does support the initiation of new bull market in 2017 which is at odds with many financial commentators.

Pring deflation: inflation:No change This indicator set appears to be starting rally above its 250dMA as the USD weakens -a trend that appears to be taking hold and not part of the market noise.

 

 

012018 Weekend update

Highlight: The STORMM indicators for the SP500 align for a new signal – the first since last August – details in our blog. 

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:No change: The SP500 STORMM indicators remain on a buy signal from August 21 with all the accompanying indicators on a supporting buy signal.    As the SP500 continues its 45 degree ascent from August the STORMM indicators keep bouncing between overbought and very overbought signaling only minor retracements in the on-going upward trend.   The accompanying indicators are nearly straight lining it upward as well.  The longer this goes on without a substantial pullback – the more concern I have of the next trend changes’ speed and intensity.

However, the STORMM indicators are now aligned to initiate a sell signal with any decline and this is the first such alignment since last August.  And with the SPXL indicators already in sell mode and the US government shut down we now potentially face a significant pull back – worth close attention. 

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: No changeThe SPXL indicators went through two sell signals in October and then generated a buy signal on November 16th.   And again just after the beginning of the year reverted back to a sell signal.  Probably too early to exit at least according to the STORMM indicators but the final gain for the year equals 49.79% – a very good yearly result.

Europe:No change  The STOX50 has a  buy signal that has now reached full validation and the TMS plus Renko charts support this signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 1/13/18): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 12/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:No change  The ten  year bond yields has now three rising yield STORMM signals which is a very strong trend confirmation.  And all the accompanying indicators support this call.  Aligned with a weekly and monthly rising rate signal the overall trend is clearly entrenched for the near term.

TNX weekly (1/13/19) Rising yields:   A weakening trend with some of the indicators crossing into declining yield territory

TNX monthly (12/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point with a partial set of indicators signaling declining yields

USD:No change:  The divergence we saw last month for the USD has resolved on Dec 12th with a validated USD sell signal that is supported strongly by all the accompanying indicators.  This is surprising given the direction of bond yields but inflationary conditions are growing.

Oil (and commodities): No change: Both oil and commodities generated  a third STORMM buy signal in November of 2017 and the upward trend since then is strong and clear.

VIX:No change  The VIX and its VIX:SPY ratio are reaching into new volatility suppressed territory.  At the moment there are now developing signals but the VIX SPY ratio is extremely overstretched and the Bollinger bands for the VIX are tightening.

Pring business cycle: No change: With all three components of the Pring business cycle in a positive position relative to their 250dMA we’re now in a stage two early stage business cycle.  The normal progression of the cycles through a recessionary status before the early stages has been skipped most likely due to the financial engineering by the FED.  This new cycle alignment does support the initiation of new bull market in 2017 which is at odds with many financial commentators.

Pring deflation: inflation:No change This indicator set appears to be starting rally above its 250dMA as the USD weakens – trend that appears to be taking hold and not part of the market noise.

 

 

011318 Weekend update

Highlight:  Our SPXL indicator finishes the year with a 49% return .  Its had new signal at the beginning of the January’18 – more in our blog….

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

Holidays away with family and a rather boring market have led to an interruption but as we’re approaching a major equity peak its time to catch-up.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 STORMM indicators remain on a buy signal from August 21 with all the accompanying indicators on a supporting buy signal.    As the SP500 continues its 45 degree ascent from August the STORMM indicators keep bouncing between overbought and very overbought signaling only minor retracements in the on-going upward trend.   The accompanying indicators are nearly straight lining it upward as well.  The longer this goes on without a substantial pullback – the more concern I have of the next trend changes’ speed and intensity.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: The SPXL indicators went through two sell signals in October and then generated a buy signal on November 16th.   And again just after the beginning of the year reverted back to a sell signal.  Probably too early to exit at least according to the STORMM indicators but the final gain for the year equals 49.79% – a very good yearly result.

Europe:  The STOX50 has a  buy signal that has now reached full validation and the TMS plus Renko charts support this signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 1/13/18): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 12/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The ten  year bond yields has now three rising yield STORMM signals which is a very strong trend confirmation.  And all the accompanying indicators support this call.  Aligned with a weekly and monthly rising rate signal the overall trend is clearly entrenched for the near term.

TNX weekly (1/13/19) Rising yields:   A weakening trend with some of the indicators crossing into declining yield territory

TNX monthly (12/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart – at the recent inflection point with a partial set of indicators signaling declining yields

USD:  The divergence we saw last month for the USD has resolved on Dec 12th with a validated USD sell signal that is supported strongly by all the accompanying indicators.  This is surprising given the direction of bond yields but inflationary conditions are growing.

Oil (and commodities): No change: Both oil and commodities generated  a third STORMM buy signal in November of 2017 and the upward trend since then is strong and clear.

VIX:  The VIX and its VIX:SPY ratio are reaching into new volatility suppressed territory.  At the moment there are now developing signals but the VIX SPY ratio is extremely overstretched and the Bollinger bands for the VIX are tightening.

Pring business cycle: No change: With all three components of the Pring business cycle in a positive position relative to their 250dMA we’re now in a stage two early stage business cycle.  The normal progression of the cycles through a recessionary status before the early stages has been skipped most likely due to the financial engineering by the FED.  This new cycle alignment does support the initiation of new bull market in 2017 which is at odds with many financial commentators.

Pring deflation: inflation: This indicator set appears to be starting rally above its 250dMA as the USD weakens – trend that appears to be taking hold and not part of the market noise.