070720 Weekend update

Highlights: STORMM sell signal for SP500 formed on Monday along with a VIX buy signal.    Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:   The STORMM indicators initiated a new sell signal today that we’re watching closely to see if it reaches full validation.  With the SP500 hitting a ceiling recently we find it important to mention developing signals especially sell signals.  The developing sell signal is supported by nearly all the accompanying indicators except the NYMO and SAR.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change:  This set has finally aligned with a bull market signal but we suspect it is late to the party and confirming a bull call at a market top…..

Zweig breath thrust chart:  No new signal since Dec 2019.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 7/3/20) Buy:  Both weekly indicators have moved to buy signals and continue to strengthen.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 6/20) Split:  Two buys and one sell chart:  We’re bias toward the buy signal for the end of June monthly signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 5/20) Sell – no chance:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX:  The VIX generated a new buy signal on 7/6 which is a negative for US equities.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: Declining yields: No change:  The STORMM signal is on a declining yield signal that is now fully supported by all the accompanying indicators.

TNX weekly (7/3/20) Declining yields: No change: The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (6/20) Declining yields: No change: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change The STORMM USD signal is on a buy signal that is currently being challenged and only partially supported by half the accompanying indicators – not a strong signal or position call for the USD>

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062720 Weekend update

Highlights:  Recent equity buy signal fails and returns to a sell with US bond rates + USD on buy signals.   Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:   The STORMM indicators generated a new buy signal on 6/3 that has quickly been invalidated.  We now have all the accompanying indicators on a sell signal and we’re back to the last confirmed, valid STORMM signal from Feb 18th which also was a sell signal.  We’re not happy with this development given the market action since the February signal but we have to stick to the system and not write in our own indicator call.

Overall, we’re now carefully watching the growing retreat into July and August to see if this a major C wave retreat (with A from the March low, B from the June 8th high) – or – a minor wave 2 retreat in a new bull phase that started in March.   Price action convincingly below SP2600 which is the Fib 61.8% retreat of the recent rally would indicate a major C wave down is underway.  Given the escalating COVID spikes in the US without a coordinated US response could lead to quick drops in equities in early July and possibly drag into August before ongoing COVID therapies’ clinical results become public in late summer  supplying a safety net to the pandemic.    The next two months are going to be interesting…….

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  This set has finally aligned with a bull market signal but we suspect it is late to the party and confirming a bull call at a market top…..

Zweig breath thrust chart:  No new signal since Dec 2019.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 6/19/20) Buy:  Both weekly indicators have moved to buy signals but they are weakening as we approach the end of June.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 5/20) Split:  And chart with a buy is weakening as we approach the end of June.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 5/20) Sell – no chance:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX: No change:  The VIX generated a buy signal on 6/6 and quickly moved through all three sell signal by 6/11.   It is now at mid-channel which is a bearish holding pattern for equities.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: Declining yields: No change:  The STORMM signal is on a declining yield signal that is now fully supported by all the accompanying indicators.

TNX weekly (6/19/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (5/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change The STORMM USD signal is on a buy signal that is currently being challenged and only partially supported by half the accompanying indicators – not a strong signal or position call for the USD>

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062220 Monday update

Highlights:  The Pring business cycle status progressed to #2 under economic contraction with inflation growing.   Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:   The STORMM indicators generated a new buy signal on 6/3 that is only partially supported by the accompanying indicators.  This divergence is troubling and projects caution in this overbought equity market.  The prior STORMM indicator was an extreme, overbought signal that forecast a minor retreat and then move to a new rally.  We’ve probably seen this minor low and are now in a rally before a more substantial summer weakness.  The current rally is not displaying the typical gaining strength off the 6/3 STORMM buy signal which supports that it could be a failing rally and the opening move of a price retreat going into July / August.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  This set has finally aligned with a bull market signal but we suspect it is late to the party and confirming a bull call at a market top…..

Zweig breath thrust chart:  No new signal since Dec 2019.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 6/19/20) Buy:  Both weekly indicators have moved to buy signals

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 5/20) Split: Soon both to confirm a buy signal

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 5/20) Sell – no chance:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX: The VIX generated a buy signal on 6/6 and quickly moved through all three sell signal by 6/11.   It is now at mid-channel which is a bearish holding pattern for equities.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: Declining yields:  The STORMM signal is on a declining yield signal that is now fully supported by all the accompanying indicators.

TNX weekly (6/19/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (5/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  The STORMM USD signal is on a buy signal that is currently being challenged and only partially supported by half the accompanying indicators – not a strong signal or position call for the USD>

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060620 Weekend update

Highlights:  USD in major down trend.  SP500 closing in on the end of its March 23 rally.  Next move will review if equities in a bull or bear market.    Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:   While the STORMM indicators likely failed to pickup the March low we do have all the accompanying indicators on a buy signal during May and now have the current SP500 signal as a buy.  However, the current STORMM signals are all in overbought territory signaling a minor pullback to be followed by a new high.

This next high will likely be the end of the rally from March 23rd.  The big question remains is this rally a bull move, wave 1 or a bear move or wave B.  The coming retracement will answer that key questions and likely occur into July and August.  The coming retracement could again be cut short by the FED and or the US Congress as extended unemployment protection runs out in later July.

We anticipate its very likely a therapeutic for COVID19 will succeed in its trials in late summer thus putting a safety net under the pandemic and combined with the possible FED’s and or US congress funding efforts could lead to a strong rally going into the US election.  And these are just the obvious coming events – others could greatly alter the tug of war in stock prices in July to Sept.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  This set has finally aligned with a bull market signal but we suspect it late to the party and confirming a bull call at a market top…..

Zweig breath thrust chart:  No new signal

Weekly SP500 (EOW 6/6/20) Split;  Soon all three to confirm a buy signal

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 5/20) Split: Soon both to confirm a buy signal

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 4/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX: The VIX continues to bounce down the stairs throwing an occasional buy signal along the way.  Until its slope plateaus we will not be taking any VIX signal seriously.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change  We’re on a declining yield STORMM signal with the accompanying indicators in divergence and calling for rising yields.   This divergence is moving toward resolution.

TNX weekly (6/6/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (5/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: The USD remains in a STORMM sell signal with the indicators in extremely oversold levels indicating a minor rally to be followed by new lows.   All the accompanying indicators support this declining trend.

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051620 Wednesday update

Highlights:   VIX and SP500 signals remain on sell signals as inflection point for equities develops.   Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  Another run at the  FIB 61.8% resistance level is coming and the STORMM signal remains on a sell signal from Feb 18th.  The accompanying indicators are increasingly weaker – time for caution as the early May openings cross the two week post event impact on COVID19 metrics.

Update 5/13:  A STORMM sell signal has inititated from very marginal, on the line set of indicators but is progressing.  Three of the accomanying indicators are confirming with the remaining two close to a sell signal as well.  Technically there appears to be a head and shoulders formation whose neck-line was broken today and has final target near SP2650.  We’ll watch closely to see if this new sell signal develops further. 

Weekend update:  The current developing STORMM sell signal stalled on Friday but the accompanying indicators pushed further toward confirming the signal with the Pring indicator switching to sell.  We now have all but the Walker indicators in a sell.  The SP500 should make a clear trend confirmation this coming week.  

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  Divergent set of signals with the majority supporting a buy but the ROC still in bear market territory.  Current call is a bear market rally.

Zweig breath thrust chart:  This chart was approaching a key thrust signal at 0.61.  However the rally failed by April 1 to have sufficient strength to generate a Zweig thrust signal which is a negative for equities near to mid-term.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 5/16/20) Sell;  Both weekly charts are now on a sell signal

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 4/20) Sell:  All charts are on a sell signal

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 4/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX: The VIX is stalled mid-channel as the SP500 is in a similar sidewards battle.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change  We’re on a declining yield STORMM signal with the accompanying indicators evenly split on yield signals.  This divergence is moving toward resolution and support of the STORMM signal for declining yields

TNX weekly (5/16/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (4/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change:  The STORMM signal indicators and accompanying indicators are divergent for the USD and its not clear where the USD is going near-term.

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