040420 Weekend update #2

Highlights:  Examination of STORMM indicators from large declines has lead to an update – SP500 signal back to a sell from 2/14.    Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  UPDATE : After some closer examinations of the STORMM signals for the major declines (1987, 2001, 2008, and 2018) we’re rejecting the last STORMM buy signal and return to the 2/18/20 STORMM sell signal.  The accompanying indicators are mixed as would be expected in a bear market bounce but given the VIX setup for this coming week we anticipate a resumption of the downward trend.  

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: Sell:  Sell signal continues and we’re watching for any gold bars on the primary graph.

Zweig breath thrust chart:  This chart is approaching a key thrust signal at 0.61.  This week’s retreat has pulled the thrust signal back from its signal line.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 4/4/20) Sell;  Both weekly charts are now on a sell signal

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 3/20) Sell:  All charts are on a sell signal

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 2/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX:  The two VIX charts are worth observing daily near term.  The VIX bollinger band chart has the lower bands rising quickly and constricting the BB channel.  After the three upper BB sell signals the VIX has slowly dropped while the BB channel tightens.  The slow Stocastic and RSI5 are both at oversold levels with tightening bands which is typically a sell signal for equities.  The coming week should be interested.    The second VIX channel has the SPX:VIX ratio approaching the key 30 ratio which is also a buy signal once the ratio drops below and crosses above 30 – a future signal to watch.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change  We’re on a declining yield STORMM signal with the accompanying indicators evenly split on yield signals.  This divergence is moving toward resolution and support of the STORMM signal for declining yields

TNX weekly (4/4/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (3/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  The STORMM signal indicators and accompanying indicators are divergent for the USD and its not clear where the USD is going near-term.

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040420 Weekend update

Highlights:  VIX Bollinger Band signal and indicators forecasting significant VIX move (mostly likely upward)= negative forecast for US equities.    Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: No change:  The SP500 STORMM indicators generated a buy signal on March 23 that is supported by nearly all the accompanying indicators but detailed technical analysis suggests this mix of signals has us in a weak retracement that could see some violent moves both up and down near-term.  Also, the STORMM indicators came very close (except for indicator #3) in generating a new sell signal.  The lack of alignment of the STORMM indicators with the accompanying technicals is troubling.  Also, the STORMM indicators came very close (except for indicator #3) in generating a new sell signal.   Monday and Tuesday of next week should resolve the major market trend.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: Sell:  Sell signal continues and we’re watching for any gold bars on the primary graph.

Zweig breath thrust chart:  This chart is approaching a key thrust signal at 0.61.  This week’s retreat has pulled the thrust signal back from its signal line.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 4/4/20) Sell;  Both weekly charts are now on a sell signal

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 3/20) Sell:  All charts are on a sell signal

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 2/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX:  The two VIX charts are worth observing daily near term.  The VIX bollinger band chart has the lower bands rising quickly and constricting the BB channel.  After the three upper BB sell signals the VIX has slowly dropped while the BB channel tightens.  The slow Stocastic and RSI5 are both at oversold levels with tightening bands which is typically a sell signal for equities.  The coming week should be interested.    The second VIX channel has the SPX:VIX ratio approaching the key 30 ratio which is also a buy signal once the ratio drops below and crosses above 30 – a future signal to watch.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change  We’re on a declining yield STORMM signal with the accompanying indicators evenly split on yield signals.  This divergence is moving toward resolution and support of the STORMM signal for declining yields

TNX weekly (4/4/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (3/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  The STORMM signal indicators and accompanying indicators are divergent for the USD and its not clear where the USD is going near-term.

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032820 Weekend update

Highlights:  New STORMM signals from 3/23 and SP500 retracement levels immediately overhead at SP2650, 2750 and 2795 = resistance?   Chart comparison of 2018 to 2020 retracements.    Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: No change:  The SP500 STORMM indicators generated a buy signal on March 23 that was supported by nearly all the accompanying indicators within a few days.  While this rally has been strong in the last few days there are some key hurdles directly ahead at the FIB retracement levels for this decline at SP500 2650, 2750, and 2950.   In the chart below is a comparison (red boxes) to the 2018/19 retracement that bounced several times off the Fib 61.8% retracement level that also showed resistance in the RSI14 50-60 level before finding its final bottom low.   We’re approaching that setup with the current rally which we interpret as a bear market rally and definitely time to be very cautious.

 

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: Sell:  Sell signal continues and we’re watching for any gold bars on the primary graph.

Zweig breath thrust chart:  This chart is approaching a key thrust signal at 0.61 – time to watch it closely to confirm this rally as a new bull run or bear market rally.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 3/28/20) Sell;  Both weekly charts are now on a sell signal

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 2/20) Buy; These sets of charts aren’t updated to the end of the month but currently are all on sell signals

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 2/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX: NO change:  The VIX has completed three crossovers of its upper Bollinger Bands typically signals the end of the upward move in the VIX (and retreat in equities).   Normally in the Bull market we expect the VIX to decline to mid-channel and slowly decline further as a rally off the lows develops.  But in this current market the VIX is staying in the upper Bollinger Bands with only sideward moves as any bounces in equities develops.  This is not a good forecast for equities near term and the current bounce should move the VIX to mid-channel.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  We’re on a declining yield STORMM signal with the accompanying indicators evenly split on yield signals.  This divergence is moving toward resolution and support of the STORMM signal for declining yields

TNX weekly (3/28/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (2/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  The STORMM signal indicators have gone into overbought territory sufficiently far to signal a minor decline (which two of accompanying indicators support) to then be followed by a rally to new highs.

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032620 Thursday update

Highlights:  New STORMM signals from 3/23 and SP500 retracement levels immediately overhead at SP2650, 2750 and 2795 = resistance?   Chart comparison of 2018 to 2020 retracements.    Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The SP500 STORMM indicators generated a buy signal on March 23 that was supported by nearly all the accompanying indicators within a few days.  While this rally has been strong in the last few days there are some key hurdles directly ahead at the FIB retracement levels for this decline at SP500 2650, 2750, and 2950.   In the chart below is a comparison (red boxes) to the 2018/19 retracement that bounced several times off the Fib 61.8% retracement level that also showed resistance in the RSI14 50-60 level before finding its final bottom low.   We’re approaching that setup with the current rally which we interpret as a bear market rally and definitely time to be very cautious.

 

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: Sell:  Sell signal continues and we’re watching for any gold bars on the primary graph.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.  Very disappointing for this indicator

Weekly SP500 (EOW 3/21/20) Sell;  Both weekly charts are now on a sell signal

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 2/20) Buy; These sets of charts aren’t updated to the end of the month but currently are all on sell signals

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 2/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX: NO change:  The VIX has completed three crossovers of its upper Bollinger Bands typically signals the end of the upward move in the VIX (and retreat in equities).   Normally in the Bull market we expect the VIX to decline to mid-channel and slowly decline further as a rally off the lows develops.  But in this current market the VIX is staying in the upper Bollinger Bands with only sideward moves as any bounces in equities develops.  This is not a good forecast for equities near term and the current bounce should move the VIX to mid-channel.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  We’re on a declining yield STORMM signal but all three of the accompanying indicators have moved to rising yields.   Very unusual divergence that continues from last week.  Clearly a sign of stress producing extreme technicals that we hope resolves soon.

TNX weekly (3/21/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (2/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  The STORMM signal indicators have again missed a significant move upward in the USD.  And now all the accompanying indicators support this rally.

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032120 Weekend update

Highlights:  SP500 below 2018 low and loosing 38.2% retracement from 2009.  Coming week key test of this support zone.  If it fails next levels are SP2029, SP1707 Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The SP500 STORMM indicators generated a buy signal last Friday that quickly failed and in the last week the intermittent rallies pulled the STORMM indicators upward in a zig zag pattern that did not support a new buy signal.  All the accompanying indicators remain on hard sell signals except for the NYMO (?) which is still on a buy signal.  Friday’s close took the SP500 below the 2018 bottom by a few points and next week’s price action will confirm or reject if this area is a building bottom.  This is also the Fib 38.2% from 2009 retracement zone so if it doesn’t supply support we’re then expecting the SP500 to move down to 2029 (Fib 50%) and possibly 1707 (Fib 61.8%) support levels.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: Sell:  Sell signal continues and we’re watching for any gold bars on the primary graph.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.  Very disappointing for this indicator

Weekly SP500 (EOW 3/21/20) Sell;  Both weekly charts are now on a sell signal

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 2/20) Buy; These sets of charts aren’t updated to the end of the month but currently are all on sell signals

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 2/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX: NO change:  The VIX has completed three crossovers of its upper Bollinger Bands typically signals the end of the upward move in the VIX (and retreat in equities).   Normally in the Bull market we expect the VIX to decline to mid-channel and slowly decline further as a rally off the lows develops.  But in this current market the VIX is staying in the upper Bollinger Bands with only sideward moves as any bounces in equities develops.  This is not a good forecast for equities near term and the current bounce should move the VIX to mid-channel.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  We’re on a declining yield STORMM signal but all three of the accompanying indicators have moved to rising yields.   Very unusual divergence that continues from last week.  Clearly a sign of stress producing extreme technicals that we hope resolves soon.

TNX weekly (3/21/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (2/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  The STORMM signal indicators have again missed a significant move upward in the USD.  And now all the accompanying indicators support this rally.

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