091120 Weekend update

Highlights: Equities on the cusp of new STORMM signal while USD rally weakens gold, commodities and inflation.   Details STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators are on the cusp of generating a new buy signal but we’ll have to wait till next week to see if it develops.  The accompanying indicators have not changed their recent signals and they too are on the cusp of supporting the STORMM buy signal – if it develops.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  Three of the four indicators in this set have signaled a sell but the fourth (ROC125) is at an extreme reading so we’ll probably not see a new sell signal from this set for some time.

Zweig breath thrust chart:  No new signal since Dec 2019.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 9/11/20) Buy:  Both weekly indicators have moved to buy signals and continue to strengthen.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 8/20) Buy   All three charts are on buy signals for the monthly.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 6/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX:  A second sell signal was generated when the VIX spiked through all three of the upper Bollo. bands.   The VIX’s next move is around mid-channel which is not a positive signal for equities.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change: The STORMM indicators and the accompanying indicators have turned to signal rising US bond yields.  And on 9/3 a second rising bond yield signal has been generated by the STORMM indicators.

TNX weekly (9/11/20) Declining yields: No change: The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (8/20) Declining yields: No change: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: Two recent STORMM buy signals have been validated and suggest a rise coming for the USD as US bond yields continue to climb.

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090420 Weekend update

Highlights:  USD and US bond yields both have STORMM indicators signalling a rise near term.  Details STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators were in extremely overbought conditions signalling a minor pullback and then a resumed rally.  That forecast is on-going and with the STORMM indicators having pulled back to mid-channel we’re now watching closely to see how they respond to the next rally.  In order of diminishing probability we anticipate: 1) a failed rally (5th wave?) and the STORMM indicators generate a sell signal, 2) renewal of historic rally and STORMM indicators go to extremely overbought, 3) major drop continues and the STORMM indicators failed to signal a sell at the recent ATH.   Time for caution as volatility increases.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  This technical set is starting to display caution or eroding signals after generating a buy signal in early April

Zweig breath thrust chart:  No new signal since Dec 2019.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 9/4/20) Buy:  Both weekly indicators have moved to buy signals and continue to strengthen.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 8/20) Buy   All three charts are on buy signals for the monthly.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 6/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX:  A second sell signal was generated when the VIX spiked through all three of the upper Bollo. bands.   The VIX’s next move to either mid-channel or lower Bollo bands will forecast the next move in US equities.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The STORMM indicators and the accompanying indicators have turned to signal rising US bond yields.  And on 9/3 a second rising bond yield signal has been generated by the STORMM indicators.

TNX weekly (9/4/20) Declining yields: No change: The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (8/20) Declining yields: No change: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: Two recent STORMM buy signals have been validated and suggest a rise coming for the USD as US bond yields continue to climb.

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083020 Weekend update

Highlights: STORMM indicators signal a rise in US bond yields that is fully supported by the accompanying indicators. Details STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators continue to cross into an extremely overbought conditions forecasting a minor pullback which is then followed by a renewed rally.   Al the accompanying indicators are on a buy signal supporting this overbought condition in the SP5000.  A more substantial pull back from these overbought levels is needed to setup the STORMM indicators for a new sell signal.  Until that develops we remain in a very unusual overbought condition.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  This technical set is starting to display caution or eroding signals after generating a buy signal in early April

Zweig breath thrust chart:  No new signal since Dec 2019.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 8/30/20) Buy:  Both weekly indicators have moved to buy signals and continue to strengthen.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 8/20) Buy   All three charts are on buy signals for the monthly.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 6/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX:  The VIX has generated several buy signals the last two months that have failed at mid channel.  However, on 8/26 it generated a buy signal that was followed by two full sell signals that did not occur with any substantial drop in the SP500.  A very unusual setup.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The STORMM indicators and the accompanying indicators have turned to signal rising US bond yields.   That was reinforces recently with an extremely overbought setup of the STORMM indicators that forecast rates would take a minor retreat and then resume their rise.

TNX weekly (8/30/20) Declining yields: No change: The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (8/20) Declining yields: No change: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change:  All the accompanying indicators now support the STORMM USD 3/24 sell signal.  In the last two weeks of July the STORMM indicators reached into severely oversold levels that signaled a minor bounce then a renewed decline.  It appears that rally forecast has completed and the USD is renewing its decline to new lows.

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081620 Weekend update

Highlights: STORMM indicators signal a rise in US bond yields that is fully supported by the accompanying indicators. Details STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators crossed into an extremely overbought condition forecasting a minor pullback then a renewed really.  It appears that pullback is ending near-term and the next rally could setup a new sell signal given the current alignment of the STORMM indicators.  Extreme caution on this next rally and following the next STORMM signal for equities.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  This technical set is starting to display caution or eroding signals after generating a buy signal in early April

Zweig breath thrust chart:  No new signal since Dec 2019.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 8/16/20) Buy:  Both weekly indicators have moved to buy signals and continue to strengthen.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 7/20) Buy   All three charts are on buy signals for the monthly.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 6/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX:  The VIX continues to generate buy signals that fail at mid channel.  Currently the VIX has touched its lower BBand and generated another buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: The STORMM indicators and the accompanying indicators have turned to signal rising US bond yields.   This is a dramatic change and we’ll see how long it lasts given the very strong declining yield signals for the weekly and monthly indicators.  The impact on the USD and gold should be significant if this new bond signal continues to rise.

TNX weekly (8/6/20) Declining yields: No change: The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (7/20) Declining yields: No change: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  All the accompanying indicators now support the STORMM USD 3/24 sell signal.  In the last two weeks of July the STORMM indicators reached into severely oversold levels that signaled a minor bounce then a renewed decline.  It appears that rally forecast has completed and the USD is renewing its decline to new lows.

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080620 Weekend update

Highlights:  USD’s recent signal was for a minor rally then move to new lows.  Progressing toward that forecast now.  Details STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators initiated a sell signal on 7/22 that has failed and with the accompanying indicators split on their calls we’re in a neutral or no current signal status.  However, the STORMM indicators are all in extremely overbought levels signaling a minor retracement to be followed by a new rally.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set:  This technical set is starting to display caution signals that a top may be in or approaching with the black histogram bars and the percentage above the 50dMA is declining

Zweig breath thrust chart:  No new signal since Dec 2019.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 8/7/20) Buy:  Both weekly indicators have moved to buy signals and continue to strengthen.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 7/20) Buy   All three charts are on buy signals for the monthly.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 6/20) Sell – no change:    This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  The accuracy of this chart will now be tested in the next 2 quarters.

VIX:  The VIX continues to generate buy signals that fail at mid channel.  Currently the VIX has touched its lower BBand and generated another buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: Declining yields: No change:  The STORMM signal is on a declining yield signal that is now fully supported by all the accompanying indicators.

TNX weekly (8/6/20) Declining yields: No change: The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (7/20) Declining yields: No change: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  All the accompanying indicators now support the STORMM USD 3/24 sell signal.  In the last two weeks of July the STORMM indicators reached into severely oversold levels that signaled a minor bounce then a renewed decline.  It appears that rally forecast has completed and the USD is renewing its decline to new lows.

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