111619 Weekend update

Highlights:  STORMM indicators generate a new SP500 bullish signal while the USD generates a new signal that aligns it with rising US Treasury yields.  Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:The STORMM indicators have gone into overbought signaling a minor pullback near term to be followed by a resumption of the upward trend.  All the accompanying technical indicators confirm this call.  On many longer term charts the SP500 is breaking out of overhead resistance and getting to very overbought levels so a minor retracement would help reduce this extreme condition and allow further advances.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 11/16/19) Buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 10/19) Buy;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 10/19) Sell .   This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  This chart confirms we’re in the final stages of this bull market and close in the coming months to a peak in the SP500.

VIX: Friday the VIX crossed the inside, lower BB band and initiated a buy signal but the advancement from this signal failed at mid-channel.  The VIX is now touching the lower BB band but no yet signaling a new buy.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:   A second rising yield signal occurred on Oct 8th so the upward trend in yields is solidifying.  The accompanying indicators all support rising yields.   So far the weekly and monthly indicators have not yet confirmed this as a major trend change.

TNX weekly (11/1/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (10/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change:After a very choppy summer and early fall the USD has finally confirmed a sell signal on Oct 2 that is now supported by all the accompanying indicators except the Pring technical.  This is divergent with the current signals for the US 10yr bond yield so we’ll have to watch closely to see if this resolves.

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110919 Weekend update

Highlights: Caution flags for the SP500 while US bond rates + USD approaching the end a recent advance.  Inflation gauges are building. Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  Same as last week: The STORMM indicators generated a second buy signal and all but one of the accompanying indicators support this call.  The very sensitive NYMO indicator generated a sell signal on 10/28 and is rapidly declining toward a new buy setup.

BUT:  The STORMM indicators spent the last three days bouncing around overbought levels and moving in/out intraday from a new sell signal.  Combined with the new VIX buy signal setup on Friday there is substantial caution ahead as the broader averages move into new highs plus breaking out of overhead resistance from monthly trends.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 11/8/19) Buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 10/19) Buy;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 10/19) Sell .   This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  This chart confirms we’re in the final stages of this bull market and close in the coming months to a peak in the SP500.

VIX: Friday the VIX crossed the inside, lower BB band and initiated a buy signal – a negative for equities near term.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:   A second rising yield signal occurred on Oct 8th so the upward trend in yields is solidifying.  The accompanying indicators all support rising yields.   So far the weekly and monthly indicators have not yet confirmed this as a major trend change.

TNX weekly (11/1/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (10/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change:After a very choppy summer and early fall the USD has finally confirmed a sell signal on Oct 2 that is now supported by all the accompanying indicators.  This is divergent with the current signals for the US 10yr bond yield so we’ll have to watch closely to see if this resolves.   Given that commodities have failed to generate any buy signals we suspect the USD will turn and rally along with yields.

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110119 Weekend update

Highlights:  US bond ratio:SP500 chart generated a sell signal. Previous sell signals were 6-12 months before SP500 peak.  Confirms final stages of this bull market.  Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators generated a second buy signal and all but one of the accompanying indicators support this call.  The very sensitive NYMO indicator generated a sell signal on 10/28 and is rapidly declining toward a new buy setup.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 11/1/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 10/19) 3 buys;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 10/19) Sell .   This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  This chart confirms we’re in the final stages of this bull market and close in the coming months to a peak in the SP500.

VIX: No change: The VIX had a very minor buy signal on 9/15 and has now completed three sell signals with an on-going retreat.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:   A second rising yield signal occurred on Oct 8th so the upward trend in yields is solidifying.  The accompanying indicators all support rising yields.   So far the weekly and monthly indicators have not yet confirmed this as a major trend change.

TNX weekly (11/1/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (10/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change:After a very choppy summer and early fall the USD has finally confirmed a sell signal on Oct 2 that is now supported by all the accompanying indicators.  This is divergent with the current signals for the US 10yr bond yield so we’ll have to watch closely to see if this resolves.   Given that commodities have failed to generate any buy signals we suspect the USD will turn and rally along with yields.

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102719 Weekend update

Highlights:  Many recent signals: commodities failed to generate buy signals we suspect the USD will rally along with yields  Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators generated a second buy signal before the US China trade talk session and we now have all the accompanying indicators supporting that call with new buy signals..

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 10/27/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 9/19) 3 buys;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 9/19) Buy.   This US treasury yield to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator that is starting to display a trend change that could lead to a sell signal.

VIX: No change: The VIX had a very minor buy signal on 9/15 and has now completed three sell signals with an on-going retreat.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  A second rising yield signal occurred on Oct 8th so the upward trend in yields is solidifying.  The accompanying indicators all support rising yields.   So far the weekly and monthly indicators have not yet confirmed this as a major trend change.

TNX weekly (10/27/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (9/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: After a very choppy summer and early fall the USD has finally confirmed a sell signal on Oct 2 that is now supported by all the accompanying indicators.  This is divergent with the current signals for the US 10yr bond yield so we’ll have to watch closely to see if this resolves.   Given that commodities have failed to generate any buy signals we suspect the USD will turn and rally along with yields.

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101219 Weekend update

Highlights: STORMM indicators generated a buy signal before US China trade talks and that signal proved itself this past week.   Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM indicators generated a second buy signal before the US China trade talk session and the validity of that signal proved itself this past week.  We now have the accompanying indicators moving toward new buy signals with the TMS and NYMO already signaling buys – the major divergence we had at our last post between the STORMM signal and the accompanying indicators has resolved in favor of the STORMM signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal.

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 10/12/19) 2 buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 9/19) 3 buys;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 9/19) Buy.   This US treasury yield to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator that is starting to display a trend change that could lead to a sell signal.

VIX: No change: The VIX had a very minor buy signal on 9/15 and has now completed three sell signals with an no-going retreat to mid-channel.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The rising yield signal from 8/29 remains valid and has now been joined by a strengthening second STORMM rising yield signal.  The accompanying indicators are starting to correct the divergence and currently the TMS and Renko charts validate the rising yield signal.

TNX weekly (10/12/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (9/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: The late June STORMM buy signal holds..

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