031817 Weekend update

Highlight:  Bonds and USD in minor retreat following the FED meeting.  STORMM indicators are reaching levels that will signal a renewed rally higher in the near term.

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 had its STORMM indicators have bounced off oversold conditions to again challenge the ATH  and the NYMO indicator has followed this same signal.  However, the other accompanying indicators have stayed on a sell signal but are slowly changing to a buy signal – a continuation we expect this coming week.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, Pct Profitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: The current SPXL signal came very close to a new buy signal but failed to fully reach a new signal.

Europe:No change: The STOXX50 has a STORMM buy signal that is supported by the accompanying indicators.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 3/18/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 2/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  Following the FED meeting US bond yields have retreated but from the STORMM indicators this is a minor pullback in a major trend higher for yields.  The TMS and Renko indicators have signaled this minor retreat while the Pring indicator is still on a rising yield status.  This divergence should resolve toward rising yields soon as the STORMM indicators are in oversold levels on the cusp of a renewed climbing yields signal.

TNX weekly (3/18/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are starting to top out and turn downward.  Again a key inflection point for bonds coming.

TNX monthly (2/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the daily and weekly charts, these indicators are topping out and at a key inflection point.

USD:  The USD, similar to US bonds is going through a minor retreat following the FEB meeting and from the STORMM indicators remains in a major uptrend.  The near term retreat is confirmed by sell signals from the accompanying indicators.  This divergence should resolve soon as the STORMM indicators are in oversold territory and on the verge of signaling a resumption of the major trend upward for the USD.

Oil (and commodities): The recent decline was excessive and took the STORMM indicators to levels that signaled a minor bounce to be followed by a renewed decline to equivalent or lower lows for both oil and commodities.   We are now seeing the minor bounce in oil and commodities that should complete soon.

VIX:No change:  The VIX has been on a hill and valley ride recently and while the Bollinger Bands are tight plus occansionally crossed, we’re avoiding any new signals for the VIX until a clearer trend emerges.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation:No change:  This indicator is now crossing by multiple measures into a deflationary trend due to the rising US bond yield and USD movement.    This growing trend will put pressure on the FED to continue its rate increases beyond the all anticipated March rise.

031117 Weekend update

Highlight: Current signals for US bonds, USD, and commodities produce a growing deflationary trend.  After a minor pullback, a renewed major trend in these three will put pressure on the FED to raise rates in the summer and fall.  Weakness too for equities in this time frame?

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 had its STORMM indicators come very close to generating a new sell signal but it was avoided this week.  The STORMM indicators retreated an unusual amount on this pull back which did cause some concern as to the current call but on Friday they turned up.  With this amount of weakness during the pull back several of the accompanying indicators (R. Walker, NYAD, NYMO) switched into a sell signal which is not unusual.  We’re now looking for a resumption of the rally off the late December STORMM buy signal but it might be possible we’re headed near term for just a B wave bounce, another decline to test the recent lows, and then a full resumption of the major trend upward.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, PctProfitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL:No change: The current SPXL signal remains on a sell signal from late January and is out of the market.  The percentage gains for recent signals can be found at our Stockchart page.  This week this chart generated a second sell signal as the indicators continue to decline toward mid- channel.

Europe:No change: The STOXX50 has a STORMM buy signal that is supported by the accompanying indicators.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 3/11/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 2/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The STORMM and accompanying indicators are in a rising bond yield alignment which correlates with the anticipated FED rise in rates this month.   This week the STORMM indicators generated a failed sell (declining yield signal) which points to a minor decline (or sidewards move) in yields to be followed by a renewed climb in bond yields.

TNX weekly (3/11/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are starting to top out and turn downward.  Again a key inflection point for bonds coming.

TNX monthly (2/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the daily and weekly charts, these indicators are topping out and at a key inflection point.

USD:  No change:  The USD has been in rally mode with all the accompanying charts supporting the STORMM buy signal from early February.  In mid February the STORMM signals indicated a minor retreat was coming to then be followed by a renewal of the major trend upward – and that is what we’ve seen in the last week.   From this set of indicators we anticipate commodities could weaken while US bond yields resume their climb.

Oil (and commodities): The US bond yield strengthening and related USD climb are having as we mentioned above a negative impact on oil and commodities.  This past week’s decline was excessive and took the STORMM indicators to levels that signaled a minor bounce to be followed by a renewed decline to equivalent or lower lows for both oil and commodities.  The significant impact of this on-going realtionship is mentioned below for deflation/inflation.

VIX:No change:  The VIX has been on a hill and valley ride the last two weeks and generated two sets of sell signals following the early February buy signal.  It now sits a neutral mid-channellevels with the TMS and Renko charts in similar neutral levels.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation:  This indicator is now crossing by multiple measures into a deflationary trend due to the rising US bond yield and USD movement.    This growing trend will put pressure on the FED to continue its rate increases beyond the all anticipated March rise.

030417 Weekend update

Highlight: US equities signal minor retreat to be followed by resumption of the Nov. rally.

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 continues it November rally with all the indicators on a buy signal.  The STORMM indicators were all in overbought territory and this week’s minor retreat caused them to generate a new STORMM signal of a minor pullback and then resumption of the major trend upward.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, PctProfitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: The current SPXL signal remains on a sell signal from late January and is out of the market.  The percentage gains for recent signals can be found at our Stockchart page.  This week this chart generated a second sell signal as the indicators continue to decline toward mid- channel.

Europe:No change: The STOXX50 has a STORMM buy signal that is supported by the accompanying indicators.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 3/4/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 2/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The STORMM and accompanying indicators are in a rising bond yield alignment which correlates with the anticipated FED rise in rates this month.   

TNX weekly (3/4/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are starting to top out and turn downward.  Again a key inflection point for bonds coming.

TNX monthly (2/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the daily and weekly charts, these indicators are topping out and at a key inflection point.

USD:  No change:  The USD has been in rally mode with all the accompanying charts supporting the STORMM buy signal from early February.  In mid February the STORMM signals indicated a minor retreat was coming to then be followed by a renewal of the major trend upward – and that is what we’ve seen in the last week.   From this set of indicators we anticipate commodities could weaken while US bond yields resume their climb.

Oil (and commodities): No change: The recent drop in oil prices completed a minor bounce as the indicators forecast and has resumed its major trend downward. The price action has invalidated the mid-Sept STORMM buy signal and returned us to a STORMM sell signal from Jun 9th.

VIX:No change:  The VIX has been on a hill and valley ride the last two weeks and generated two sets of sell signals following the early February buy signal.  It now sits a neutral mid-channellevels with the TMS and Renko charts in similar neutral levels.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change: The Pring inflation deflation indicator has a negative KST and the CRB index has crossed to the negative its 200dMA. However the CRB and GTX indexes are slowing rising above their moving average lines suggesting inflation is strengthening but needs further progression to confirm the rising trend.

022517 Weekend update: post vacation pickup

Highlight: US bonds are starting to top out on daily, weekly, and monthly set of indicators.  Key inflection point coming for US bonds.   From the USD indicators we anticipate commodities could weaken while US bond yields resume their climb.

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

I have been on vacation recently and while this blog is not updated my Stockchart series is kept current.

SP500: The SP500 continues it November rally with all the indicators on a buy signal except the NYMO that is more sensitive to minor pullbacks and signaled this type of move this week.  The NYMO is reaching its lower values and will likely turn this coming weeks with a new buy signal as the rally continues.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introduced a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, PctProfitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: The current SPXL signal remains on a sell signal from late January and is out of the market.  The percentage gains for recent signals can be found at our Stockchart page.

Europe: The STOXX50 has a STORMM buy signal that is supported by the accompanying indicators.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 2/25/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  The range bound action since the new year has drifted the 10yr bond slightly downward and invalidated the third STORMM rising yield signal.  The TMS indicators have experienced the same development while the Renko chart is now on a declining yield signal in February.    We still have the late September STORMM rising yields signal and the STORMM indicators are moving in oversold levels.  They are close to a new signal that we anticipate for this week.  Key inflection point for US bond yields coming.

TNX weekly (2/25/17) Rising yields:   However, this charts indicators are stopping to top out and turn downward.  Again a key inflection point for bonds coming.

TNX monthly (1/17) Rising yields:  Similar to the daily and weekly charts, these indicators are topping out and at a key inflection point.

USD:  The USD has been in rally mode with all the accompanying charts supporting the STORMM buy signal from early February.  In mid February the STORMM signals indicated a minor retreat was coming to then be followed by a renewal of the major trend upward – and that is what we’ve seen in the last week.   From this set of indicators we anticipate commodities could weaken while US bond yields resume their climb.

Oil (and commodities): No change: The recent drop in oil prices completed a minor bounce as the indicators forecast and has resumed its major trend downward. The price action has invalidated the mid-Sept STORMM buy signal and returned us to a STORMM sell signal from Jun 9th.

VIX: The VIX has been on a hill and valley ride the last two weeks and generated two sets of sell signals following the early February buy signal.  It now sits a neutral mid-channellevels with the TMS and Renko charts in similar neutral levels.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change: The Pring inflation deflation indicator has a negative KST and the CRB index has crossed to the negative its 200dMA. However the CRB and GTX indexes are slowing rising above their moving average lines suggesting inflation is strengthening but needs further progression to confirm the rising trend.

020417 Weekend update

Highlight: The STOXX50 and USD generate new signals this week.

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: The SP500 had a developing sell signal that was cancelled with Friday’s rally.  We remain in a buy STORMM signal with nearly all the accompanying indicators confirming.  The R.Walker series did initiate a sell signal mid-week but this has failed after the Friday rally.

SP500 Stratasearch: We’re introducing a new chart and technical indicator set for SPXL developed using the outstanding software from Stratasearch. The accompanying chart at the top of page 2 in our Stockchart public series contains the last 6 months of signals for the SPXL using some of these indicator sets. The best of the set of indicators we’re displaying have the following performance backtest results from 2007: APR: 52.17%, Ave Trade: 11.79%, Ave Win%: 47.74%, Ave Loss%:8.19, PctProfitable trades: 35.71%, Num trades:42, wins:15 loss 27. Stops at 3,4, and 8%. Some of the other indicator combinations produce a more profitable number of trades but at the expense of yearly performance. Stop loss levels are key to avoid significant drawdowns. We are currently exploring a combination of tactical asset allocation (momentum strategy) across a set of 10 asset classes with optimized Stratasearch signals to determine performance characteristics. Results will be presented in the future. As with all our indicators, the signals are for instructional purposes and not presented as advise to buy or sell a security.

SPXL: The current SPXL signal remains on a sell signal despite Friday’s rally.

Europe:   The STOXX50 again generated a STORMM buy signal that is not yet supported by the accompanying indicators.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 2/3/17): Buy: All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/17): Buy All the monthly indicators are on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:No change: The dual STORMM rising yields signals from late July and September have forecast the amazing spike in yields that we continue to watch. Recently from overbought level for the STORMM indicators yields have again completed a minor trend decline. This week the STORMM indicators generated a third rising yield signal which is very unusual. In the last two weeks all the accompanying 10yr bond yield indicators have turned to rising yields supporting the forecast for rising yields across all our indicators from daily to monthly.

Long term bond yields: We have two charts for the US ten-year bond yield to compliment the SP500 weekly / monthly charts using the same set of indicators for both time frames.

TNX weekly (2/3/17) Rising yields: The amazing climb in US bond yields has finally turned the weekly chart to a confirmation of climbing yields – clearly a major turn in bond yields is now occurring.

TNX monthly (1/17) Rising yields: The monthly US bond yield indicators has joined the weekly and confirmed rising yields from all.

USD:  The USD STORMM indicators have generated a buy signal that is not yet supported by the accompanying indicators but does correlate with the continued rise in US bond yields.   This new signal will be challenged by political headwinds.

Oil (and commodities): No change: The recent drop in oil prices completed a minor bounce as the indicators forecast and has resumed its major trend downward. The price action has invalidated the mid-Sept STORMM buy signal and returned us to a STORMM sell signal from Jun 9th.

VIX: The VIX bounced around all week and in the process generated a sell signal and then a new buy signal but settled the week in the lower end of its BB range in neutral.

Pring business cycle:No change: Bonds have broke below their signaling 250dMA while stocks and now commodities are above their 250dMA. Inflation and commodities appear to be strengthening which points to a stage 4 in the Pring business cycle. Stage 4 is a late stage but a normal part of the Pring business cycle divisions that is followed by stage 5 where strengthening inflation eventually has a negative impact on stocks (trend below their 250dMA).

Pring deflation: inflation: No change: The Pring inflation deflation indicator has a negative KST and the CRB index has crossed to the negative its 200dMA. However the CRB and GTX indexes are slowing rising above their moving average lines suggesting inflation is strengthening but needs further progression to confirm the rising trend.