101418 Weekend update: addendum

Highlights:  Two near-term forecasts for the SP500 from our indicators are added to this week’s update at  STROMM blog  and  STORMM Stockchart link

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

Additional notes:  Both SP500 STORMM indicators and the VIX generated signals at the close on Friday that forecast the near-term direction for the SP 500  The STORMM indicators both went into very oversold readings that forecast a minor bounce to be followed by an equivalent or more likely lower low.  The VIX completed its third Bollinger Band cross last week and we can expect a decline to mid-channel while equities rally (or bounce off the recent low).  Both of these forecasts can be seen in the charts below and at our Stockchart public listing (link above).

 

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101318 Weekend update

Highlights:  The rise in US bond yields and USD shows no signs of weakening while US equities have started a major trend down.  Downside equity targets outlined in the yearly chart and near term bounce signals in this WE post.    STORMM Stockchart link

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM buy signal from June remains intact in the face of what appears to be a major change in trend.  With all the accompanying charts on a sell signal we anticipate the STORMM signal to remain on a buy until the high of coming SP500 bounce that started on Friday and targeting the SP2820-2850 area.   The downside targets and trend signals are highlighted in the chart below with a target box around SP2300-2450 and the USHL5 reaching -6-8000 as it did in the last low in 2016.

SPXL:  The SPXL signal went to a sell in late July which now appears to be an accurate position given the last few days of downward and rapid price deterioration.  For 2018 this indicator is firmly in the plus side compared to the SP500 buy and hold metrics.  Currently this set of indicators is oversold and we’re anticipating a buy signal for the B wave bounce soon.

Europe: The STOXX50 recent buy signal has failed and we now have the STORMM indicators aligned on a sell signal with the TMS and Renko charts.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 10/13/18): Buy All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500 but deteriorating rapidly

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 9/18): Buy:  The monthly indicators are split with two on a sell signal and two remaining on a buy signal and deteriorating rapidly.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change: There is no change in the bond yield indicators and the recent climb in rates appears to not be over on any time scale.

TNX weekly (10/5/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues.

TNX monthly (9/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend continues

USD: No change The USD follows the major trend on US bond yields upward and continues to generate overbought STORMM signals of minor pullbacks in the rising major trend.

Oil (and commodities):No change: Both graphs generated a new STORMM buy signal on June 19th.

Pring business cycle: No change:  The bond component of the three Pring business cycle indicators has been bouncing around its 250dMA but is more convincingly in a negative alignment.  With stocks and commodities in a positive relationship it appears we’re now in stage 4 of the Pring business cycle which is a later stage status for the market (6 cycles total).  The next cycle would see a decline initiate for equities due to some degree of economic contraction.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change The developing inflation trend is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 4 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields

 

100618 Weekend update

Highlights: Major trend for US equities remains upward in the face of a very strong and unrelenting upward trend in bond rates and USD.  STORMM Stockchart link

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM buy signal from June remains intact in the face of unrelenting bond yield and USD rallies.   With the majority of the accompanying charts on sell signals we’ll likely to see continued near term weakness but the major trend from the STORMM indicators remains on a buy status.

SPXL:  The SPXL signal went to a sell in late July which appears to be very early but the indicators is moving into buy signal territory from the recent price deterioration.

Europe: The STOXX50 has had a series of failed buy signals and the latest buy signal is divergent from the TMS and Renko sell signals.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 10/5/18): Buy All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 9/18): Buy:  The monthly indicators are split with two on a sell signal and two remaining on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  There is not change in the bond yield indicators and the recent climb in rates appears to not be over on any time scale.

TNX weekly (10/5/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend continues.

TNX monthly (9/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend continues

USD: No change The USD follows the major trend on US bond yields upward and continues to generate overbought STORMM signals of minor pullbacks in the rising major trend.

Oil (and commodities):No change: Both graphs generated a new STORMM buy signal on June 19th.

Pring business cycle: No change:  The bond component of the three Pring business cycle indicators has been bouncing around its 250dMA but is more convincingly in a negative alignment.  With stocks and commodities in a positive relationship it appears we’re now in stage 4 of the Pring business cycle which is a latter stage status for the market (6 cycles total).  The next cycle would see a decline initiate for equities due to some degree of economic contraction.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change The developing inflation trend is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 4 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields

 

080418 Weekend update

Highlights:  Caution for equities near term as the VIX generates a buy signal on Friday.  Bond rates remain strong and rising.  STORMM Stockchart link

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM signal is back to a buy from the end of June and all the accompanying indicators support this call.

SPXL:  The SPXL signal went to a sell in late July and indicator remains in mid-channel without a new signal pending.

Europe: The STOXX50 has a developing STORMM sell signal that has not yet reached full validation and its TMS and Renko charts support a sell signal.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 8/4/18): Buy All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 7/18): Buy:  The monthly indicators are split with two on a sell signal and two remaining on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change The STORMM indicators have maintained their rising rate signal from early April which is the fourth in a series of rising rate signals

TNX weekly (6/9/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend resumes.

TNX monthly (5/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend resumes.

USD: No change The USD follows the major trend on US bond yields upward and continues to generate overbought STORMM signals of minor pullbacks in the rising major trend.

Oil (and commodities):No change: Both graphs generated a new STORMM buy signal on June 19th.

VIX:  At the close on Friday the tightening Bollinger Band chart had the VIX generate a buy signal which is a negative for equities near term.

Pring business cycle: No change:  The bond component of the three Pring business cycle indicators has been bouncing around its 250dMA but is more convincingly in a negative alignment.  With stocks and commodities in a positive relationship it appears we’re now in stage 4 of the Pring business cycle which is a latter stage status for the market (6 cycles total).  The next cycle would see a decline initiate for equities due to some degree of economic contraction.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change The developing inflation trend is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 4 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields

 

 

 

062718 Wednesday update

Highlights:  Sell signals for equities reached full validation today.   Details on the weekly and monthly indicators set in the blog and and chart   STORMM Stockchart link

The STORMM blog is updated on the weekend and our stockcharts daily. The charts are accessible via the link in the right side bar. Please vote and elect to follow our charts.

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts. With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500: A STORMM sell signal that has been developing for several days and as we mentioned on the weekend update – expected to fail has from today’s drop in the index reached full validation.  The STORMM sell signal is accompanyed by all the supplimental indicators plus the Dow and Transports both have new STORMM sell signals.  A rather strong series of validations that currently forecast a troubling near-term picture.  We’re closely watching the weekly and monthly SP500 indicator set since we’re seeing erosion closing in on new bear signals in these sets as well.  Time for caution.

SPXL:  The SPXL buy signal from late May is in trouble of failing but it still keeps two other buy signal intact for now.

Europe: No change: The STOXX50 generated a STORMM buy signal on June 19th that is so far not supported by the TMS or Renko charts so caution until they catch up and confirm.

SP500:Long term technicals: The set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 6/23/18): Buy All the weekly indicators are on a buy signal for the weekly SP500 but the recent price retreat is turning this set of indicators downward slowly.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 5/18): Buy:  The monthly indicators are split with two on a sell signal and two remaining on a buy signal.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change The STORMM indicators have maintained their rising rate signal from early April which is the fourth in a series of rising rate signals.   The challenge of this latest signal form the yield drop on May 29th did not materialize and rates again are resuming their major trend upward.  The weekly and monthly indicators all maintain their rising rate signals – a very entrenched trend.

TNX weekly (6/9/18) Rising yields:   A strong uptrend resumes.

TNX monthly (5/18) Rising yields:  Similar to the weekly chart a strong uptrend resumes.

USD: No change The USD follows the major trend on US bond yields upward and continues to generate overbought STORMM signals of minor pullbacks in the rising major trend.

Oil (and commodities):No change: Both graphs generated a new STORMM buy signal on June 19th and we’ll see if it can survive in the face of the major trend upward of US bond yields and the USD>

VIX: No change: The Bollinger Bands and VIX price are mid-channel not signaling any new direction for equities which further supports that we anticipate the developing sell signal for the SP500 will not reach full validation.

Pring business cycle: No change:  The bond component of the three Pring business cycle indicators has been bouncing around its 250dMA but is more convincingly in a negative alignment.  With stocks and commodities in a positive relationship it appears we’re now in stage 4 of the Pring business cycle which is a latter stage status for the market (6 cycles total).  The next cycle would see a decline initiate for equities due to some degree of economic contraction.

Pring deflation: inflation: No change The developing inflation trend is becoming more established each week supporting a Stage 4 Pring economic cycle call and correlated to rising bond yields