011820 Weekend update

Highlights:   USD STORMM buy signal solidifies and aligns with rising yield signal for US bond yields.  Should be a negative for the commodity rally.   Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM signals are progressing toward a new signal as the rally extends and remain on a buy signal.   All the accompanying indicators are on a buy signal with the NYMO joining the rally trend with a buy signal from 1/14.   The next STORMM signal appears from the pending overbought readings of indicator #2 to be a minor retreat in the SP500 then a resumption of the major trend upward to new highs.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal but is currently very overbought

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 1/18/20) Buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/20) Buy;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 1/20) Sell .   This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  This chart confirms we’re in the final stages of this bull market and close in the coming months to a peak in the SP500.

VIX: No change: The VIX generated a buy signal on on November 27th and has moved through all its three Bollinger Band sell signals.  The VIX is now approaching its lower channel levels but has not crossed its lower BBands yet.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  US bond yields have generated a STORMM rising yield signal on 11/22 that currently is being tested as a valid current signal.  The accompanying indicators were weakening and now have confirmed declining yield signals for all.  We’re watching closely to see when this divergence is resolved.

TNX weekly (1/18/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (1/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  The USD has a valid STORMM buy signal that is now supported by all it accompanying indicators. This aligns with the rising yield US bond signal and is a negative for commodities.

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011120 Weekend update

Highlights:   US bond yields signals have a divergence in need of resolution.    Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM signals are progressing toward a new signal as the rally extends and remain on a buy signal.   All the accompanying indicators are on a buy signal except the very sensitive NYMO that generated a sell on 12/28 in advance of the recent weakness.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal but is currently very overbought

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 1/11/20) Buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/20) Buy;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 1/20) Sell .   This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  This chart confirms we’re in the final stages of this bull market and close in the coming months to a peak in the SP500.

VIX: No change: The VIX generated a buy signal on on November 27th and has moved through all its three Bollinger Band sell signals but is still holding to the mid-BB channel which remains a negative for equities near term.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  US bond yields have generated a STORMM rising yield signal on 11/22 that currently being tested as a valid current signal.  The accompanying indicators were weakening and now have confirmed declining yield signals for all.  We’re watching closely to see when this divergence is resolved.

TNX weekly (1/11/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (1/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: No change: The recent price action has invalidated the last STORMM signal (buy on 12/16) and also generated a new USD STORMM buy signal on 12/30.  The accompanying indicators mixed and we’re watching this mix in the next few days to see if a major signal and trend emerge.

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010420 Weekend update

Highlights:   US bond yields and USD STORMM signals are currently being tested.  Coming week is key for resolving their trend.   Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The STORMM signals remain on a buy signal and the recent index weakness has returned their values to mid-channel.  This setup is positioning the series for a new signal in the next few days.  All the accompanying indicators are on a buy signal except the very sensitive NYMO that generated a sell on 12/28 in advance of the recent weakness.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal but is currently very overbought

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 1/4/20) Buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 1/20) Buy;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 1/20) Sell .   This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  This chart confirms we’re in the final stages of this bull market and close in the coming months to a peak in the SP500.

VIX: No change: The VIX generated a buy signal on on November 27th and has moved through all its three Bollinger Band sell signals but is still holding to the mid-BB channel which remains a negative for equities near term.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield:  US bond yields have generated a STORMM rising yield signal on 11/22 that currently being tested as a valid current signal.  The accompanying indicators are weakening as well from their rising rate signal.

TNX weekly (1/4/20) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (1/20) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD: The recent price action has invalidated the last STORMM signal (buy on 12/16) and also generated a new USD STORMM buy signal on 12/30.  The accompanying indicators mixed and we’re watching this mix in the next few days to see if a major signal and trend emerge.

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122719 Weekend update

Highlights:   All the current signals remain stable for the week except the USD.  Happy New Year and great 2020 to all!    Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  No change: The current STORMM sell signal failed this week and we’re back to the STORMM buy signal from 10/2 with all the accompanying indicators having switched to a buy signal     This past week the STORMM indicators all moved to extremely overbought (invalidating the last STORMM sell signal) and forecasting a minor pull back is next to then be followed by a resumption of the major trend and rally from early Oct.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal but is currently very overbought

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 12/27/19) Buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 11/19) Buy;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 11/19) Sell .   This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  This chart confirms we’re in the final stages of this bull market and close in the coming months to a peak in the SP500.

VIX: No change: The VIX generated a buy signal on on November 27th and has moved through all its three Bollinger Band sell signals but is still holding to the mid-BB channel which remains a negative for equities near term.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  US bond yields have generated a STORMM rising yield signal on 11/22 which is supported by all the accompanying indicators.

TNX weekly (12/27/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (11/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  The STORMM indicators have generated a buy signal that is supported by all the accompanying indicators except the Pring set.  This puts the USD in alignment with rising US bond yields near term.

A rapid drop this week in the USD puts the recent STORMM buy signal under pressure and the accompanying indicators are eroding from their buy signal as well.  Close watch in the USD into the new year.

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122019 Weekend update

Highlights:  USD daily STORMM signal switches and is now aligned with the recent daily signal for US bond yields, but oil and commodities remain in rally mode.     Details at STORMM Blog

We cover STORMM signals for the SP500, 10yr Treasury yield, USD, gold, oil, and the VIX with Pring Turner business cycle charts. The charts are arranged first with a STORMM annotation followed by a TMS view and two moving average charts STOCKCHARTS: STORMM public list.  With a similar time scale its easy to compare signals across multiple charts by scrolling down the page.

SP500:  The current STORMM sell signal failed this week and we’re back to the STORMM buy signal from 10/2 with all the accompanying indicators having switched to a buy signal     This past week the STORMM indicators all moved to extremely overbought (invalidating the last STORMM sell signal) and forecasting a minor pull back is next to then be followed by a resumption of the major trend and rally from early Oct.

SP500:Long term technicals: This set of charts are a collection of classical indicators that are valuable on a long-term to mid-term time spans and have been key in calling key tops and bottoms over the last 15 years.

SP500 Elder set: No change: On 8/29 the majority of the Elder set turned to a buy signal but is currently very overbought

Zweig breath thrust chart: No change: On buy from 1/1/19 and has not experienced any substantial pullback yet.

Weekly SP500 (EOW 12/20/19) Buy:  Both charts have confirmed a buy signal.

Monthly SP500 (EOM- 11/19) Buy;  The monthly charts remain on a buy signal.

Yearly SP500 (updated monthly 11/19) Sell .   This US treasury yield ratio to SP500 chart (credits to D.Larew) is a very long term oscillator.  With October’s close this bond ratio to equity chart generated a sell signal.  The last sell signal occurred in the 3Q07 near the peak in the SP500.  The last two sell signals (2000, 2007) came 6-12 months before the SP500 rolled over from its peak.  This chart confirms we’re in the final stages of this bull market and close in the coming months to a peak in the SP500.

VIX: No change: The VIX generated a buy signal on on November 27th and has moved through all its three Bollinger Band sell signals but is still holding to the mid-BB channel which remains a negative for equities near term.

US 10 yr Treasury bond yield: No change:  US bond yields have generated a STORMM rising yield signal on 11/22 which is supported by all the accompanying indicators.

TNX weekly (12/20/19) Declining yields:  The weekly indicator set is on a declining yield signal.

TNX monthly (11/19) Declining yields: The monthly yield chart remains fully on declining yields.

USD:  The STORMM indicators have generated a buy signal that is supported by all the accompanying indicators except the Pring set.  This puts the USD in alignment with rising US bond yields near term.

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