112223 Wednesday update

SP500 STORMM SIGNAL: Buy fully validated BUY (Nov 3)

SP500: The SP500 has advanced significantly confirming further the STORMM buy signal from Nov 3rd. The rally has been so strong it has generated a very bullish Zweig signal.

Recent STORMM indicators have also generated two failed sell signals which signal minor retreats to be followed by a renewed rally.

Finally, the technical structure of the on-going bear market is not looking “right” and the “C” leg down that we mentioned recently as having completed at the last STORMM buy signal from Nov 3rd could actually be just the “A” wave of the “C” wave retracement. This interpretation would then assign the current rally as a three wave “B” wave which could fit other technical charts above as a strong rally that could reach new highs. The final move would be a “C” wave of “C” down into the spring or summer of 2024 which aligns with the key decisions by the Fed on rates and bank liquidity. Weather this coming “C” wave is the final move in the bear market since 2022 remains to be seen. We’ll be using the STORMM indicators to signal major trend changes.

110723 Tuesday update

SP500 STORMM SIGNAL: Buy fully validated BUY (Nov 3)

SP500: A new STORMM signal was generated today. We mentioned in our last post that the rapid rally off our last STORMM buy signal had two potential STORMM signals on the horizon. With today’s follow through strength a new STORMM signal was generated. It’s actually a STORMM SELL signal, but its alignment signals a minor drop to be followed a renewed rally. The forecasted minor drop will likely test the down channel upper line on the chart below. The signal forecasts the test will be successful and we’ll then bounce off the channel to resume the rally.

110423 Weekend update

SP500 STORMM SIGNAL: Buy signal initiated Oct 31 and fully validated (Nov 3)

SP500: This week’s rally off the Fed’s hold on rates has taken the STORMM indicators rapidly to overbought conditions and in the process fully validated the Oct 31 STORMM buy signal. We’re now on the cusp of a new signal that will tip its hand likely on Monday or Tuesday. Two options for the pending STORMM signal:

Most likely: STORMM indicators go to extreme overbought levels signaling a minor retreat to be follow by a renewed rally.

Possibly but lower probability: New STORMM sell signal

However, given that the technical descending channel from August has been exceeded to the upside and within this channel we’ve completed an A B C D E retreat we expect a test of the channel to be followed by a renewed rally. Stay tuned – we’ll post the near term signals.

103123 Tuesday update

SP500 STORMM SIGNAL: SELL from Oct 12 // new buy signal initiated Oct 31 pending validation

SP500: As we mentioned in our last post the STORMM indicators were in oversold territory and could generate a buy signal at any time. This occurred today but the bounce off oversold conditions is occurring in a major down trending channel, so the price action has to climb significantly to establish a new bull trend which we view as a lower probability outcome. The ongoing down channel reaches a key lower level test at SP3925 which is the FIB 61.8% retracement, between now and the end of the year. Watching closely now to see if the STORMM buy signal reaches full validation. All three of the major indexes are in sync with the Dow and Transports also generating new STORMM buy signals today awaiting full validation.

102523 Wednesday update

SP500 STORMM SIGNAL: SELL from Oct 12

The SP500 continues to retreat and the STORMM indicators are in oversold territory. They appeared to be progressing toward a new buy signal but this week have deteriorated further and need close watching for a major bear signal. There are several additional charts below to illustrate a deteriorating picture for equities. The SP500 trend line chart we posted previously illustrates a technical failure to move above the lower trend line from Oct ’22 and the retracement has reached its first Fib. retracement zone at SP4184. There are several other key market components on this chart and all point to a retreat in equities.

Also below we’re presenting the STORMM indicators for the Dow and Transport indexes that have validated STORMM sell signals. This broad a confirmation of a STORMM sell signal is not good for any substantial rallies soon that could morph into major uptrends. The Dow STORMM sell signal is from Oct 12th while the Transport STORMM sell signal is a double from July 28th and Oct 11th